WDC
Western DigitalNASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, WDC has a composite score of 20.7 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The valuation label changed from "expensive" to "full." The top drivers influencing this score include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.99
- Slope (norm)0.51
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.66 → $3.27 (+23.1% / 30d). 16 raised, 0 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 14 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
13 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.4% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
8 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase revenue to $3.65 billiongrowthmixed65% progress
4/30: “For our fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, we expect revenues of $3.65 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.9 billion in 2026-Q2 to $3.65 billion guidance for 2026-Q4. Management's trajectory is delivering on this growth priority.
- 2.Achieve non-GAAP gross margin of 51.5%costmixed65% progress
4/30: “We expect non-GAAP gross margin of 51.5% for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross margin improved from 44.5% in 2026-Q1 to 51.5% guidance for 2026-Q4. Management is delivering on this margin improvement priority.
- 3.Reach non-GAAP EPS of $3.25growthmixed65% progress
4/30: “We expect non-GAAP EPS of $3.25 for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS increased from $1.88 in 2026-Q1 to $3.25 guidance for 2026-Q4. Management is delivering on this EPS growth priority.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 60%; 252d 61%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −21%. Bad day move −6%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.09 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 0/100, drawdown 59/100, beta 9/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · valuation_labelseverity 20
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
As of May 8, 2026, the valuation label for WDC changed from "expensive" to "full." The forward view indicates an unfavorable scenario with a composite delta estimate of -8.0 if next-quarter guidance is cut. Additionally, there is a favorable scenario with a composite delta estimate of 5.0 if the information technology sector trend rises to "improving." The overall risk label remains "elevated."
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 177.9% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase revenue to $3.65 billion
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Management aims to increase revenue to $3.65 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.9 billion in 2026-Q2 to $3.65 billion guidance for 2026-Q4. Management's trajectory is delivering on this growth priority.
65%CEO/CFO:“For our fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, we expect revenues of $3.65 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“For our fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, we expect revenues of $3.65 billion.”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“For our fiscal third quarter of 2026, we expect revenues of $3.2 billion.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For our fiscal second quarter of 2026, we expect revenues of $2.9 billion.”
- #2
Achieve non-GAAP gross margin of 51.5%
CostNew since 2026-05-04Management targets a non-GAAP gross margin of 51.5% for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross margin improved from 44.5% in 2026-Q1 to 51.5% guidance for 2026-Q4. Management is delivering on this margin improvement priority.
65%CEO/CFO:“We expect non-GAAP gross margin of 51.5% for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“We expect non-GAAP gross margin of 51.5% for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“We expect non-GAAP gross margin of 47.5% for the fiscal third quarter of 2026.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We expect non-GAAP gross margin of 44.5% for the fiscal second quarter of 2026.”
- #3
Reach non-GAAP EPS of $3.25
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Management aims to achieve a non-GAAP EPS of $3.25 for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS increased from $1.88 in 2026-Q1 to $3.25 guidance for 2026-Q4. Management is delivering on this EPS growth priority.
65%CEO/CFO:“We expect non-GAAP EPS of $3.25 for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q3Multiple sources
“We expect non-GAAP EPS of $3.25 for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026.”
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“We expect non-GAAP EPS of $2.30 for the fiscal third quarter of 2026.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We expect non-GAAP EPS of $1.88 for the fiscal second quarter of 2026.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
48 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WDC Western Digital | +21 | full | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026 , Western Digital Corporation (the “Company”) announced financial results for the fiscal third quarter ended April 3, 2026. A copy of the press release making this announcement is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 60 - 2026-02-242mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On February 13, 2026, the Company issued a conditional notice of redemption of up to the entire aggregate principal amount outstanding of its 2.850% Senior Notes due 2029 (CUSIP No. 958102AQ8) (the “2029 Notes”) and of its 3.100% Senior Notes due 2032 (CUSIP No. 958102AR6) (the “2032 Notes” and, together with the 2029 Notes, the “Notes”), which were issued pursuant to an indenture, dated as of December 10, 2021 (the “Indenture”), among the Company and U.S. Bank, National Associa…
capital allocationneutralscore 10 - 2026-02-182mo agoItem 3.03
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. As previously disclosed, Western Digital Corporation (the “Company”) previously issued and sold shares of the Company’s Series A Convertible Perpetual Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share (the “Preferred Stock”), to certain investors in connection with a private placement that closed on January 31, 2023 (the “Closing Date”). Pursuant to the Company’s Certificate of Designations, Preferences and Rights of the Preferred Stock (the “Cert…
capital allocationneutralscore 8 - 2026-01-293mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026 , Western Digital Corporation (the “Company”) announced financial results for the fiscal second quarter ended January 2, 2026. A copy of the press release making this announcement is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 1…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 7 - 2026-02-092mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On January 5, 2026, Western Digital Corporation, a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a conditional notice of redemption in respect of the entire aggregate principal amount outstanding of its 4.750% Senior Notes due 2026 (CUSIP No. 958102AM7) (the “Notes”), which were issued pursuant to an indenture, dated as of February 13, 2018 (the “Indenture”), among the Company, the guarantors party thereto and U.S. Bank, National Association, as trustee (the “Trustee”) (the “Rede…
capital allocationneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.