WEX Inc. (WEX)
NYSEFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$179.78-0.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WEX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WEX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 28, 2026, WEX Inc. (the “Company”) issued a news release announcing its third-quarter 2026 results and posted its earnings supplement to the investor section of the Company’s website at www.wexinc.com. A copy of the release and supplement are attached as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 and are incorporated by reference herein in their entirety. The information in this item, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished, not filed. Accord…
Why it matters: WEX has cut leverage from 3.1x in Q1 to 2.7x in Q3. Further progress would support its debt-cutting plan.
Supportive ifA reported leverage ratio below 2.7x, down from 2.7x at September 30, 2026.
Worry ifA reported leverage ratio at or above 2.7x in the next quarter.
Why it matters: WEX set Q4 guidance at $5.67 to $5.87 per share. A result below the low end would break that target.
Worry ifQ4 2026 adjusted net income per share is below $5.67.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 adjusted net income per share is at least $5.67.
Why it matters: WEX said higher fuel prices add cash flow and revenue. Its Q4 forecast uses $4.81 per gallon, so a large change may shift results.
Watch forThe Q4 average U.S. retail fuel price is above $4.81 per gallon and WEX reports a larger fuel-price benefit.
Also watch forThe Q4 average U.S. retail fuel price is below $4.81 per gallon and WEX reports a smaller fuel-price benefit.
Why it matters: WEX raised its full-year revenue range to $2.97 billion to $2.99 billion. Falling short would reverse that growth signal.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue is below $2.97 billion.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 revenue reaches at least $2.97 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $343 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,140 loss on $10,000 · 31.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: WEX's Q4 forecast assumes Mobility credit losses of 17 to 22 basis points. A higher rate could pressure earnings.
Worry ifQ4 Mobility credit losses top 22 basis points.
Less concerning ifQ4 Mobility credit losses are 22 basis points or lower.
Why it matters: WEX returned about $200 million through Q3 repurchases, against $234.3 million in adjusted free cash flow. This tests its capital-return plan.
Watch forQ4 share repurchases are at least 80% of Q4 adjusted free cash flow.
Also watch forQ4 share repurchases are less than 50% of Q4 adjusted free cash flow.