WM
Waste ManagementNYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, WM has a composite score of 18.5, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 75.5 and reflects various factors, including a macro score of 30.0 and a sector score of 16.7. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the current assessment may change as new information becomes available.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.05
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.03 → $1.99 (-1.8% / 30d). 7 raised, 14 cut, 24 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 68% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
6 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Drive revenue growth in 2026growthbehind0% progressprovisional
1/28: “WM's outlook for growth in 2026 is driven by expectations of continued strength in the solid waste business.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue guidance for 2026 is $26,425M to $26,625M, reflecting expectations of growth driven by solid waste business and sustainability investments. However, financials show revenue of $4,031M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the annual target.
- 2.Expand adjusted operating EBITDA margincoston track100% progressprovisional
1/28: “Adjusted operating EBITDA margin (a) 30.8%-31.0% Expansion of 30 basis points on a comparable basis.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EBITDA margin guidance for 2026 is 30.8% to 31.0%, aiming for a 30 basis point expansion. Financials show operating income of $907M in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards margin expansion.
- 3.Increase free cash flowcapital allocationmixed35% progressprovisional
1/28: “Free cash flow (a) $3,750 - $3,850 Growth of 29.4%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free cash flow guidance for 2026 is $3,750M to $3,850M, targeting a 29.4% growth. However, cash from operating activities was negative $3,075M in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in achieving this target.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 22%; 252d 19%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −18%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.05 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 69/100, drawdown 64/100, beta 5/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Drive revenue growth in 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on increasing revenue through solid waste business and sustainability investments.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue guidance for 2026 is $26,425M to $26,625M, reflecting expectations of growth driven by solid waste business and sustainability investments. However, financials show revenue of $4,031M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the annual target.
0%CEO/CFO:“WM's outlook for growth in 2026 is driven by expectations of continued strength in the solid waste business.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-28Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“WM's outlook for growth in 2026 is driven by expectations of continued strength in the solid waste business.”
- #2
Expand adjusted operating EBITDA margin
CostNew since 2026-05-04Aim to increase adjusted operating EBITDA margin by 30 basis points.
On trackStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EBITDA margin guidance for 2026 is 30.8% to 31.0%, aiming for a 30 basis point expansion. Financials show operating income of $907M in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards margin expansion.
100%CEO/CFO:“Adjusted operating EBITDA margin (a) 30.8%-31.0% Expansion of 30 basis points on a comparable basis.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Adjusted operating EBITDA margin (a) 30.8%-31.0% Expansion of 30 basis points on a comparable basis.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Projected adjusted operating EBITDA margin guidance has increased to between 29.6% and 30.2%.”
- #3
Increase free cash flow
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Target to grow free cash flow to $3,750M-$3,850M in 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free cash flow guidance for 2026 is $3,750M to $3,850M, targeting a 29.4% growth. However, cash from operating activities was negative $3,075M in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in achieving this target.
35%CEO/CFO:“Free cash flow (a) $3,750 - $3,850 Growth of 29.4%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-28Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Free cash flow (a) $3,750 - $3,850 Growth of 29.4%.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Free cash flow guidance remains between $2.8 and $2.9 billion.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WM Waste Management | +19 | fair | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2810d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Waste Management, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release today announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026, a copy of which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The Company is conducting an audio webcast to discuss these results beginning at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on April 29, 2026. Listeners can access the live audio webcast by visiting investors.wm.com and selecting “Events & Presentations” from the website me…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 52 - 2026-03-251mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On March 20, 2026, Waste Management, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into Amendment No. 2 (the “ Amendment ”) to its Seventh Amended and Restated Revolving Credit Agreement dated May 8, 2024 (as amended and restated, the “ Credit Agreement ”) among the Company, Waste Management of Canada Corporation and WM Quebec Inc., as the Borrowers, Waste Management Holdings, Inc., as Guarantor, the banks party thereto from time to time, and Bank of America, N.A.,…
capital allocationneutralscore 24 - 2026-03-131mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously announced, Ms. Devina Rankin voluntarily resigned from her position of Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Waste Management, Inc. as of November 1, 2025, following her admirable career spanning 23 years of dedicated service, including nearly nine years as Chief Financial Officer. She continued to serve as an execut…
executive changeneutralscore 22 - 2026-03-062mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Annual incentive awards were granted on March 3, 2026, to the Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer and each of the other currently-serving named executive officers of Waste Management, Inc. (the “Company”) identified in the Company’s most recent proxy statement (collectively, the “Executives”), pursuant to action by the Management Devel…
executive changeneutralscore 19 - 2026-01-283mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Waste Management, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release today announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, a copy of which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The Company is conducting an audio webcast to discuss these results beginning at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on January 29, 2026. Listeners can access the live audio webcast by visiting investors.wm.com and selecting “Events & P…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.