WY
WeyerhaeuserNYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, WY has a signal label of "mild_favorable" with a composite score of 10.0. This change from "mixed" to "mild_favorable" is influenced by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions and sector trends. The confidence level is medium at 75.3, with notable strengths in management (50.9) and quality (52.5), while the valuation is considered expensive at 27.8. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.05
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.06 → $0.11 (+91.5% / 30d). 4 raised, 2 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.0% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase Adjusted EBITDA by $1.5 billiongrowthmixed63% progress
3/26: “Our goal to add $1.5 billion of incremental Adjusted EBITDA to our results measured against a 2024 baseline.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has set a long-term goal to increase Adjusted EBITDA by $1.5 billion by 2030. However, the financials do not yet show significant progress towards this target, with revenue fluctuating between $1.68 billion and $1.94 billion over the past quarters. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery so far.
- 2.Maintain 2026 Adjusted EBITDA at $425 milliongrowthmixed63% progress
4/30: “The company continues to expect full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA for the segment to be approximately $425 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company aims to maintain 2026 Adjusted EBITDA at $425 million. Financials show operating income fluctuating, with $188 million in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in achieving consistent EBITDA levels. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
- 3.Comparable Q2 earnings to Q1growthmixed63% progress
4/30: “Weyerhaeuser anticipates second quarter earnings before special items and Adjusted EBITDA will be comparable to the first quarter.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company expects Q2 earnings to be comparable to Q1. With Q1 revenue at $1.727 billion and operating income at $188 million, maintaining this level will require consistent performance. Limited progress can be assessed after Q2 results.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 24%; 252d 26%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −22%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLRE) — 0.99 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 57/100, drawdown 56/100, beta 99/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · signal_labelseverity 20
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
As of May 8, 2026, the signal label for WY changed from "mixed" to "mild_favorable." This reflects a transition in sentiment. The forward view indicates unfavorable scenarios, including a potential guidance cut and a rates reversal, both contributing to a negative composite delta estimate. However, there are also favorable scenarios, such as a potential sector trend improvement and a guidance raise, which could positively impact the outlook.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 120.0% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase Adjusted EBITDA by $1.5 billion
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Aim to add $1.5 billion of incremental Adjusted EBITDA against a 2024 baseline by 2030.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has set a long-term goal to increase Adjusted EBITDA by $1.5 billion by 2030. However, the financials do not yet show significant progress towards this target, with revenue fluctuating between $1.68 billion and $1.94 billion over the past quarters. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery so far.
63%CEO/CFO:“Our goal to add $1.5 billion of incremental Adjusted EBITDA to our results measured against a 2024 baseline.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-03-26Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Our goal to add $1.5 billion of incremental Adjusted EBITDA to our results measured against a 2024 baseline.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Our goal to add $1.5 billion of incremental Adjusted EBITDA to our results measured against a 2024 baseline.”
- #2
Maintain 2026 Adjusted EBITDA at $425 million
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Target full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $425 million.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company aims to maintain 2026 Adjusted EBITDA at $425 million. Financials show operating income fluctuating, with $188 million in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in achieving consistent EBITDA levels. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
63%CEO/CFO:“The company continues to expect full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA for the segment to be approximately $425 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The company continues to expect full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA for the segment to be approximately $425 million.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The company expects full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA for the segment to be approximately $425 million.”
- #3
Comparable Q2 earnings to Q1
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Anticipate second quarter earnings before special items and Adjusted EBITDA to be comparable to the first quarter.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The company expects Q2 earnings to be comparable to Q1. With Q1 revenue at $1.727 billion and operating income at $188 million, maintaining this level will require consistent performance. Limited progress can be assessed after Q2 results.
63%CEO/CFO:“Weyerhaeuser anticipates second quarter earnings before special items and Adjusted EBITDA will be comparable to the first quarter.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Weyerhaeuser anticipates second quarter earnings before special items and Adjusted EBITDA will be comparable to the first quarter.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
64 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WY Weyerhaeuser | +10 | expensive | moderate |
WELL Welltower | +7.9 | expensive | low |
PLD Prologis | +10 | full | low |
EQIX Equinix | +22 | fair | moderate |
AMT American Tower | +18 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If real_estate sector trend rises from +0.00 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-8.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If real_estate sector trend falls from +0.00 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-309d agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in s…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 59
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.