XYL
Xylem Inc.NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, XYL has a composite score of 16.5 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 75.3 and a moderate risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, labor, rates, and inflation. The valuation score is 70.7, indicating it is considered inexpensive. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.05
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.36 → $1.34 (-1.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 12 cut, 19 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 8 maintained. 61% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 24.1% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
3 material events in the last 24 months — top 3 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase revenue growthgrowthbehind0% progress
4/28: “Xylem now forecasts full-year 2026 revenue of approximately $9.2 to $9.3 billion, up approximately 2 to 3 percent.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $9.0 billion in 2025-Q3 to $9.2-$9.3 billion in 2026-Q1, indicating a focus on growth. However, actual revenue in 2025-Q4 was $1.96 billion, showing limited progress towards the annual target.
- 2.Maintain adjusted EBITDA margincostbehind0% progress
4/28: “Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be approximately 22.9 to 23.3 percent.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EBITDA margin guidance increased from 21.3-21.8% in 2025-Q3 to 22.9-23.3% in 2026-Q1. Despite this, gross profit in 2025-Q4 was $685 million, indicating limited progress in achieving higher margins.
- 3.Sustain free cash flow margincapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/28: “Full-year free cash flow margin is still expected to be approximately 10.2 to 11.0 percent.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow margin guidance increased from 9-10% in 2025-Q3 to 10.2-11.0% in 2026-Q1. However, cash from operations in 2025-Q4 was $138 million, suggesting limited progress in achieving the higher margin.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 32%; 252d 24%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −25%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.88 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 60/100, drawdown 50/100, beta 88/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase revenue growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Focus on achieving higher revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $9.0 billion in 2025-Q3 to $9.2-$9.3 billion in 2026-Q1, indicating a focus on growth. However, actual revenue in 2025-Q4 was $1.96 billion, showing limited progress towards the annual target.
0%CEO/CFO:“Xylem now forecasts full-year 2026 revenue of approximately $9.2 to $9.3 billion, up approximately 2 to 3 percent.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Xylem now forecasts full-year 2026 revenue of approximately $9.2 to $9.3 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Initiating 2026 full-year revenue guidance of $9.1 to $9.2 billion.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Xylem now forecasts full-year 2025 revenue of approximately $9.0 billion.”
- #2
Maintain adjusted EBITDA margin
CostNew since 2026-05-04Aim to sustain adjusted EBITDA margin within the guided range.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. EBITDA margin guidance increased from 21.3-21.8% in 2025-Q3 to 22.9-23.3% in 2026-Q1. Despite this, gross profit in 2025-Q4 was $685 million, indicating limited progress in achieving higher margins.
0%CEO/CFO:“Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be approximately 22.9 to 23.3 percent.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be approximately 22.9 to 23.3 percent.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be approximately 22.0 to 22.3 percent.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be approximately 21.3 to 21.8 percent.”
- #3
Sustain free cash flow margin
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Continue to maintain a stable free cash flow margin as guided.
Behind →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow margin guidance increased from 9-10% in 2025-Q3 to 10.2-11.0% in 2026-Q1. However, cash from operations in 2025-Q4 was $138 million, suggesting limited progress in achieving the higher margin.
35%CEO/CFO:“Full-year free cash flow margin is still expected to be approximately 10.2 to 11.0 percent.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Full-year free cash flow margin is still expected to be approximately 10.2 to 11.0 percent.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Full-year free cash flow margin is still expected to be approximately 9 to 10 percent.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Full-year free cash flow margin is still expected to be approximately 9 to 10 percent.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
XYL Xylem Inc. | +17 | inexpensive | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2810d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, Xylem Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 52 - 2026-02-252mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events On February 25, 2026, the Board of Directors of Xylem Inc. (the “Company”) approved the adoption of a new share repurchase program. Under the new program, which has no expiration date, the Company is authorized to purchase up to $1.5 billion in shares of the common stock, $0.01 par value, of the Company (“Common Stock”). Repurchases under the new program may be made through open market purchases or otherwise (in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations in effect from t…
capital allocationpositivescore 10 - 2026-02-102mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 10, 2026, Xylem Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference into any filing un…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 9
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.