ZAI LAB LTD (ZLAB)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$22.60-0.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ZLAB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 348.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 334.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers
ZLAB — private placement
Dated 2026-10-23
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Securities Purchase Agreement On October 22, 2026, Zai Lab Limited (the “Company”) entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “Securities Purchase Agreement”) with certain accredited investors named therein (each, an “Investor” and collectively, the “Investors”), relating to the sale to the Investors of 11,340,000 American depositary shares of the Company (“ADSs”), each representing ten ordinary shares of the Company with a par value of $0.00…
Why it matters: Product sales rose 11% from Q1 to Q2, but revenue remained lower than a year earlier. More growth would support the company's 2027 goal.
Watch forQuarterly net product revenue rises from Q2's $105.8 million and grows year over year.
Also watch forQuarterly net product revenue falls below $105.8 million or remains lower year over year.
Why it matters: These first results will show whether ZL-1503 is safe and active in people. The first patient data from the dose study are due in the first half of 2027.
Watch forZai Lab reports safety and drug levels in people. It also reports signs of the planned immune effect within the stated data window.
Also watch forZai Lab reports a safety issue, no planned immune effect, or data delayed past the stated window.
Why it matters: A Phase 3 start would move zoci into a key test in first-line SCLC. The company tied this step to the emerging study data and talks with regulators.
Supportive ifZai Lab or a trial record confirms that the first-line SCLC Phase 3 study has begun by year-end 2026.
Worry ifThe Phase 3 study has not begun by year-end 2026, or Zai Lab reports a delay or change to the plan.
Why it matters: KarXT launched in mainland China in June. Sales growth and a filing for national drug-list coverage would show progress in the launch.
Supportive ifZai Lab reports rising KarXT sales or use, then files for China NRDL inclusion in 2027.
Worry ifZai Lab reports weak or falling KarXT sales, or does not seek NRDL inclusion in 2027.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$183 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $436 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,473 loss on $10,000 · 34.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The October private placement added 11.34 million ADSs. Its cash proceeds and final share count show how much funding it adds and how much existing holders are diluted.
Worry ifA company filing confirms the placement closed and gives the cash proceeds and final ADS count.
Less concerning ifA filing says the placement did not close, or reports fewer ADSs sold than the announced 11.34 million.