ZAI LAB LTD (ZLAB)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.23-2.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ZLAB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 355.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 343.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ZLAB — officer change
Dated 2026-05-21
President and Chief Operating Officer — Mr. Josh Smiley: Mr. Josh Smiley is leaving his roles as President and Chief Operating Officer.
Why it matters: New leaders can change how a company works. Stability helps a company grow.
Worry ifNew leadership is announced that aligns with growth strategies.
Less concerning ifNo new leaders are appointed, or the change causes more instability.
Why it matters: The launch could tap into a large patient population and drive revenue.
Supportive ifKarXT launches in China as planned in Q2 2026.
Worry ifKarXT launch is delayed or faces regulatory hurdles.
Why it matters: This data will show how well ZL-1503 works in humans. Positive results could boost investor confidence in the pipeline.
Supportive ifThe first human data from the Phase 1 study will come out in late 2026.
Worry ifNo data is released. Results may show poor safety or effectiveness.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect plans and results. This matters for investor trust.
Worry ifA new executive is appointed to replace the COO and is well-received by the market.
Less concerning ifNo new leader is chosen or the new one is seen as bad.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $436 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,267 loss on $10,000 · 52.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Inclusion in the NRDL could significantly boost sales for KarXT in China. This would support Zai Lab's growth strategy.
Supportive ifKarXT is included in China's NRDL, leading to increased patient access and sales.
Worry ifKarXT is not included in the NRDL, limiting its market potential in China.
Why it matters: If revenue stabilizes or improves, it shows Zai Lab is fixing recent sales drops.
Supportive ifQ2 total revenue growth turns positive year over year, exceeding $99.6 million.
Worry ifQ2 total revenue continues to decline year over year, falling below $99.6 million.
Why it matters: Approval of TIVDAK could improve Zai Lab's products and revenue in China.
Supportive ifRegulatory approval for TIVDAK is granted by the NMPA in 2026.
Worry ifTIVDAK approval is delayed or denied.
Why it matters: Initial data could show ZL-1503 works for atopic dermatitis. Good results may help Zai Lab grow.
Supportive ifFirst human data shows ZL-1503 has good safety and works well in the body.
Worry ifData shows safety problems or that ZL-1503 may not work, raising concerns.
Why it matters: Finishing enrollment is important for U.S. fast-track approval for zoci. This could boost future sales.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the DLLEVATE study is done early, helping with a quick BLA submission.
Worry ifEnrollment is delayed past the first half of 2027, causing worries about zoci's timeline.