Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc (AADX)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.56-8.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 5, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.38 → 0.38 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AADX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Strengthen executive leadership | A supporting condition in Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable leadership roles. | Intact | leadership changes lead to instability | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextNewly stated in 2026-Q2. The company promoted an existing executive to a senior leadership role as of 2026-08-10. No further updates on leadership changes were provided in other quarters, so the impact on strategic execution is not yet measurable. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk industrials business with an insufficient record to classify as a durable compounder or a turnaround. Management appears stable, but the long-term thesis is still unproven because recent financial history is limited and the company continues to report losses.
The evidence does not include valuation or market-expectations data, so whether AADX is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. The available priced-in signal shows low fragility, but that does not establish what expectations are reflected in the valuation.
Near term, results show revenue alongside substantial operating and net losses, with no prior-quarter comparisons available to establish a trend. Management has taken initial steps on an IPO and leadership changes, but their progress and effect on financial performance are not yet clear.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on whether AADX can improve financial performance and reduce operating losses. Sector bellwethers' earnings and guidance, along with the direction of employment data, may shape the industrials backdrop and recession concerns.
The multi-year view remains insufficiently established: management actions are visible, but losses persist and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Evidence is limited, so execution and broader industrial conditions remain central uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Reduce operating losses significantly | The company is focused on improving financial performance and reducing operating losses. | Under Pressure | operating losses exceed $50M in FY26 | Operating income: $-96.232M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <-50M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 2026-96,232,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextNewly stated in 2026-Q2. The company reported revenue of $167.3M but incurred an operating loss of $96.2M and net loss of $154.0M in 2026-Q2. Without prior quarter comparisons, trajectory assessment is limited but financial results indicate ongoing operating losses. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Achieve revenue of $670M-$690M in 2026 | A primary condition in Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=670M. | Intact | revenue falls below $670M in FY26 | Revenue: $167.318M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=670M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 2026167,318,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 5, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.38 → $0.38 · observed estimates
$0.78B → $0.78B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.38 | $780,320,000 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.