AbbVie (ABBV)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-07-07
$254.64-0.05%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $254.64. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $255 ABBV trades at 25× p/e, in line with its 22× p/e peer median, and our $234 fair value agrees. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $235–$300. Note: our $234 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($235–$300). Not investment advice.
$235.00 – $300.00 (median $265.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 72% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 9.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $8.03/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $265.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $129.37 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $107.85 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $44.89 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $307.88 | 21.7 | 14.18 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $234.38 | 20.9 | 11.19 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $307.88 | 21.7 | 14.18 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $358.80 | 10.1 | 35.41 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $145.11 | 10.2 | 14.18 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $293.23 | 20.7 | 14.18 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $226.25 | 21.7 | 10.42 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $793.07 | 21.7 | 36.53 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $197.88 | 20.9 | 9.45 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $412.94 | 21.7 | 19.02 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $485.81 | 10.1 | 47.95 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $194.62 | 10.2 | 19.02 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $393.29 | 20.7 | 19.02 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $1490.27 | 21.7 | 68.64 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $176.76 | 20.9 | 8.44 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $503.21 | 21.7 | 23.18 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $592.01 | 10.1 | 58.43 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $237.17 | 10.2 | 23.18 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $479.26 | 20.7 | 23.18 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.