Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AbbVie (ABBV)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
$288.24-2.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
16.43 → 16.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ABBV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Invest at least $1.78 billion in manufacturing and R&D in 2026 | The company invests $1.4 billion in manufacturing and expands its drug pipeline. | Intact | Capital investments fall significantly below $1.78 billion in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a diversified pharmaceutical growth business with robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance. The long-term thesis is intact, though management execution is mixed: immunology growth is progressing, while acquired research and development costs remain a material guidance item.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 1.06 premium measure and an expectations gap recorded as aligned. The evidence does not show that expectations are especially fragile, but valuation rose by 21 points recently, making the premium a meaningful part of the setup.
Near-term results have been strong, with positive earnings-beat events on October 5 and October 30, 2026. Immunology and neuroscience revenues increased between the first and third quarters, while oncology progress was narrower; acquired research and development costs also increased their year-to-date guidance impact. Near-term miss risk is rated low, though the snapshot notes a history of misses and a prior deep miss.
A key favorable signal would be guidance rising next quarter after it was lowered as of July 31, 2026. Continued growth in immunology and diversified medicines, alongside progress from the Apogee acquisition, would support the multi-year view. Weaker jobs data could add recession concerns, while earnings and guidance from healthcare peers may provide a useful sector signal.
For the next one to three years, ABBV’s thesis rests on continued growth across its medicines and steadier management execution, balanced against expensive valuation and recurring acquired research costs. The evidence supports an intact but not risk-free long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in AbbVie's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.73 USD per share quarterly. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $1.64 or is cut |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase adjusted diluted EPS to at least $14.28 in 2026 | A primary condition in AbbVie's published investment case. The stated target is >=14.28 USD per share. | Broken | adjusted diluted EPS falls below $13.96 in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Advance pipeline and secure regulatory approvals for key drugs | A primary condition in AbbVie's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain steady regulatory approvals and milestones progress in 2026. | Intact | Significant regulatory setbacks or failure to advance key drugs like Skyrizi, Rinvoq, or Epkinly | Qualitative: 6 positive pipeline/regulatory events vs steady progress target Recent news confirms BLA submission, Phase 3 success, and breakthrough designations, reinforcing pipeline progress. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$16.28 → $16.31 · observed estimates
$72.82B → $73.67B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $16.28 | $72,819,028,100 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-07-25 | $16.27 | $72,836,420,630 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-26 | $16.27 | $72,836,420,630 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-27 | $16.44 | $72,845,320,768 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $16.29 | $72,838,594,540 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-29 | $16.30 | $72,858,638,020 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-30 | $16.30 | $72,858,638,020 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-31 | $16.30 | $72,858,638,020 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-01 | $16.46 | $72,885,080,768 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-02 | $16.29 | $73,092,860,290 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $16.29 | $73,092,860,290 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-04 | $16.32 | $73,015,219,820 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $16.36 | $73,068,234,480 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $16.36 | $73,068,234,480 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $16.33 | $73,698,746,730 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $16.49 | $73,160,003,859 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $16.31 | $73,641,059,390 | 22 / 20 |
| 2026-08-10 | $16.31 | $73,641,059,390 | 22 / 20 |
| 2026-08-11 | $16.49 | $73,160,003,859 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-12 | $16.26 | $73,510,931,770 | 23 / 21 |
| 2026-08-13 | $16.26 | $73,510,931,770 | 23 / 21 |
| 2026-08-14 | $16.49 | $73,160,003,859 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-15 | $16.49 | $73,160,003,859 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $16.49 | $73,160,003,859 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $16.49 | $73,160,003,859 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $16.49 | $73,160,003,859 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $16.49 | $73,160,003,859 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $16.49 | $73,160,003,859 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-21 | $16.32 | $73,407,116,214 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $16.32 | $73,407,116,214 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-23 | $16.32 | $73,407,116,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $16.32 | $73,407,116,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $16.32 | $73,407,116,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $16.32 | $73,407,116,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $16.32 | $73,407,116,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $16.32 | $73,407,116,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $16.32 | $73,407,116,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $16.32 | $73,407,116,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $16.32 | $73,407,116,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $16.32 | $73,407,116,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $16.32 | $73,407,116,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $16.32 | $73,349,992,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-04 | $16.32 | $73,349,992,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $16.32 | $73,349,992,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $16.32 | $73,349,992,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-07 | $16.32 | $73,349,992,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $16.32 | $73,349,992,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $16.32 | $73,349,992,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $16.32 | $73,350,012,214 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $16.37 | $73,407,237,038 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $16.37 | $73,407,997,038 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $16.37 | $73,407,997,038 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $16.37 | $73,407,997,038 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $16.37 | $73,407,997,038 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $16.37 | $73,407,997,038 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-17 | $16.37 | $73,407,996,746 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $16.37 | $73,407,996,746 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $16.37 | $73,407,996,746 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $16.37 | $73,407,976,746 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $16.37 | $73,407,976,746 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $16.37 | $73,407,997,038 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $16.41 | $73,407,997,038 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $16.41 | $73,407,997,038 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $16.41 | $73,407,997,038 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $16.41 | $73,408,009,644 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $16.41 | $73,408,009,644 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $16.41 | $73,408,009,644 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $16.43 | $73,412,293,351 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $16.43 | $73,412,117,663 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $16.43 | $73,412,117,956 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $16.43 | $73,412,117,956 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $16.43 | $73,412,117,956 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $16.43 | $73,412,117,956 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | $16.43 | $73,412,117,956 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | $16.43 | $73,411,997,956 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-07 | $16.44 | $73,412,013,956 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-08 | $16.45 | $73,435,948,763 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-09 | $16.43 | $73,457,856,157 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-10 | $16.43 | $73,457,856,157 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-11 | $16.40 | $73,449,167,002 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $16.40 | $73,449,167,002 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.39 | $73,471,507,238 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.38 | $73,499,218,262 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.38 | $73,502,989,970 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $16.38 | $73,495,189,970 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $16.38 | $73,495,189,970 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $16.38 | $73,495,193,970 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $16.38 | $73,495,193,970 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $16.38 | $73,498,321,958 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $16.40 | $73,495,426,829 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $16.38 | $73,495,426,829 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $16.41 | $73,515,164,429 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $16.41 | $73,536,158,104 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $16.41 | $73,536,158,104 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $16.41 | $73,536,158,104 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $16.41 | $73,536,158,104 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $16.29 | $73,536,158,104 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $16.29 | $73,536,158,104 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $16.30 | $73,531,196,566 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $16.28 | $73,573,916,197 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $16.26 | $73,573,916,197 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $16.26 | $73,586,757,351 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $16.28 | $73,664,737,267 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $16.31 | $73,670,410,326 | 16 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 17 recorded
9 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.