Absci Corp. (ABSI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$9.39-10.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ABSI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -38.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -60.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers
ABSI — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-11
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, together with Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section and shall not be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: This is the first test of hair growth in people. It can show if ABS-201 works beyond its early safety results.
Watch forInterim HEADLINE data show more hair in the target area than with placebo. There is no serious safety issue.
Also watch forInterim data show no more hair in the target area than with placebo, or a serious safety issue.
Why it matters: A signed deal would show that Absci can turn partner talks into new work. No new deal was reported in the Q2 update.
Supportive ifAbsci announces and names at least one new drug creation partnership by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifAbsci reports no new partnership by December 31, 2026, or says talks ended without a deal.
Why it matters: The full 26-week results can test whether early hair-growth signs last. They can also add to the smaller interim data set.
Watch forFull HEADLINE results in early 2027 show more hair in the target area than with placebo. There is no serious safety issue.
Also watch forFull HEADLINE results show no more hair in the target area than with placebo, or a serious safety issue.
Why it matters: Absci reported cash to fund plans into the second half of 2028. Its ongoing trials also drive research costs.
Worry ifThe November 12 update keeps the cash runway at least through the second half of 2028.
Less concerning ifThe November 12 update moves the cash runway to before the second half of 2028.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$372 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $851 loss on $10,000 · 8.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,279 loss on $10,000 · 42.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.