Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Absci Corp. (ABSI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$9.39-10.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ABSI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain sufficient cash to fund operations into first half of 2028 | The company aims to fund operations into mid-2028. | Intact | cash runway falls short of mid-2028 funding needs | Cash runway guided into 2H 2028 vs H1 2028 target Aug 2026 news confirms cash runway guidance into 2H 2028. June 2026 equity issuance adds capital. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth thesis, not a proven earnings compounder. The thesis is on watch: management’s clinical priorities remain on track by its account, but recent financial performance trails its industry cohort and the business remains loss-making.
ABSI is tagged as stretched, with a large premium versus peers and low confidence in the valuation model. The expectations gap is tied to optionality, meaning investors appear to assign value to possible future outcomes despite limited current earnings support.
Near term, results may remain uneven: recent earnings were in line after an earlier reported beat, and the next print carries elevated miss risk. Management says ABS-201 milestones remain on track, while cash rose after an equity offering and is expected to fund operations into the second half of 2028; the AI platform has no direct financial metrics in the evidence.
The multi-year view depends on progress in ABS-201, including interim proof-of-concept data expected in the second half of 2026 and full data in early 2027, plus the planned Phase 2 endometriosis trial. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could support sector sentiment; weakening employment data could add pressure to healthcare names.
Over the next one to three years, ABSI’s thesis rests on clinical milestones and its ability to fund development, with substantial execution risk and valuation expectations that already reflect future possibilities. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Absci Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS improves from -$0.76 in FY26 to > -$0.63 in FY27. |
| Broken |
| EPS worsens beyond -$0.76 in FY26 or fails to improve in FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth from $5.47M in 2026 to $16.5M in 2027 | A primary condition in Absci Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $16.5M revenue in FY27. | Broken | revenue falls below $5.5M in FY26 or fails to grow toward $16.5M in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.70 → $-0.73 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.70 | $17,675,550 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.70 | $17,675,550 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.70 | $17,675,550 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.70 | $17,675,550 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.62 | $17,675,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.62 | $17,675,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.62 | $17,675,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.62 | $17,675,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.70 | $17,675,550 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.62 | $17,675,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.62 | $17,675,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.62 | $17,675,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.62 | $17,675,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.62 | $17,675,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.62 | $17,675,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.62 | $17,675,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.62 | $17,675,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.62 | $17,675,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.70 | $17,675,550 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.62 | $17,675,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.62 | $17,675,550 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.70 | $17,675,550 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.70 | $17,675,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.70 | $17,675,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.70 | $17,675,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.70 | $17,675,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.70 | $17,675,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.70 | $17,675,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.71 | $16,145,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.72 | $15,995,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.72 | $15,995,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.72 | $15,995,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.72 | $15,995,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.72 | $15,995,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.72 | $15,995,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.72 | $15,995,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.72 | $15,995,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.72 | $15,995,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.72 | $15,995,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.72 | $15,995,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.72 | $15,995,550 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.72 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.72 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.72 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.72 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.72 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.72 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.72 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.72 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.72 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.72 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.73 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.73 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.73 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.73 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.73 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.73 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.73 | $15,993,750 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.74 | $14,657,955 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.73 | $14,657,955 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.73 | $14,657,955 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.73 | $14,657,955 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.73 | $14,657,955 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.73 | $14,657,955 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.73 | $14,657,955 | 6 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.