ADIAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC (ADIL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.15+6.68%
Close 2026-11-03 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADIL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
ADIL — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-28
CEO — Matthew Davidson: The filing announces the internal promotion of Matthew Davidson to CEO, succeeding Cary J. Claiborne whose employment was terminated, representing a significant but planned leadership transition rather than a sudden loss of a sitting executive.
Why it matters: This is the next set date to check cash, spending, and progress on AT177. The company reported a $52.0 million quarterly loss, including a $46.2 million non-cash charge.
Watch forThe November 12 report says cash runway lasts into the second half of 2027. It also reports progress toward the first-half 2027 IND filing.
Also watch forThe report cuts the cash runway below the second half of 2027 or delays the IND filing beyond the first half of 2027.
Why it matters: The filing is the next step from lab work to human testing. A delay would push back the planned Phase 1 trial.
Supportive ifThe company files an IND for AT177 by June 30, 2027.
Worry ifThe company has not filed the IND by June 30, 2027, or reports a delay.
Why it matters: Starting the trial may unlock another $32 million in financing. The cash would help fund later AT177 work.
Watch forThe company starts the Phase 1 trial and confirms receipt of the added $32 million.
Also watch forThe trial has not started by December 31, 2027, or the company reports that the added $32 million was not received.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$430 on $10,000 · ±4.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,000 loss on $10,000 · 10.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,444 loss on $10,000 · 84.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.