Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ADIAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC (ADIL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.15+6.68%
Close 2026-11-03 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ADIL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete integration and value creation from Azora acquisition | Adial completed the acquisition of Azora in June 2026, enhancing its strategic position. | Intact | Acquisition fails to integrate or deliver strategic benefits by FY26 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 3, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, meaning the case depends on future drug-development progress rather than established earnings. The thesis is in watch status, with low confidence, weak recent performance, volatile management, and high overall risk.
The evidence does not provide a valuation measure or clear market expectations, so whether ADIL looks cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Its loss-making position and early-stage programs are clear, but the snapshot does not show what the market already assumes about them.
Near term, the business remains loss-making, and the risk of an earnings miss is elevated because recent results have been erratic. Management says current cash can fund operating expenses into the second half of 2027, excluding an additional contingent tranche; AT177 remains in IND-enabling studies, with a Phase 1 trial planned for 2027. A CEO transition, a delisting-related notice, and limited delivery on the proposed AD04 commercial pathway add uncertainty.
Over the multi-year view, a key test is whether ADIL advances AT177 into clinical development and secures funding for later milestones. The AD04 European pathway also depends on reaching a definitive agreement. Near term, weaker jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare names, while results and guidance from sector bellwethers could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ADIL remains a high-risk development-stage story with limited evidence of execution and a funding plan that includes a contingent tranche. The thesis depends on clinical progress, financing, and clearer commercial delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in ADIAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC's published investment case. The stated target is EPS improves from -5.0 in Q3 2026 to better than -1.0 in FY26. |
| Broken |
| EPS remains below -1.0 for FY26 or worsens |
Diluted EPS: $-11.25 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS improves from -5.0 in Q3 2026 to better than -1.0 in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 2026-11.25 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful commercialization of AD04 in Europe via Molteni partnership | It formed a partnership with Molteni Farmaceutici to commercialize AD04 in Europe. | Intact | Partnership fails to launch or generate commercial progress by FY26 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 3, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage financial obligations and optimize capital allocation | Despite losses, management is focused on managing financial obligations and capital allocation. | Under Pressure | Financial obligations worsen or capital allocation deteriorates by FY26 | Stockholders' equity < $2.5M vs >= $2.5M target Nasdaq notice of delisting due to failure to meet $2.5M minimum stockholders' equity requirement as of June 30, 2026. Nov 3, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.53 → $-0.61 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.53 | $4,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.53 | $4,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.53 | $4,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.53 | $4,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.53 | $4,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-14.25 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-14.25 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-14.25 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-14.25 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-14.25 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-14.25 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-14.25 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-14.25 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-14.25 | $0 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.53 | $4,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-7.45 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-7.45 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-7.45 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-7.45 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-7.45 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-7.45 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.53 | $4,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.53 | $4,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.53 | $4,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.53 | $4,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.53 | $4,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.53 | $4,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.24 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.61 | $4,400,000 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.