ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.10-0.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADTN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADTN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 3, 2026, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (“ADTRAN”) announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of ADTRAN’s press release announcing its financial results is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it could hurt ADTRAN's performance in a growth phase.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median in the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: This margin range shows how well the company controls costs. It shows how efficient they are.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 non-GAAP operating margin reported within the range of 1.5% to 5.5%.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, the non-GAAP operating margin is below 1.5%.
Why it matters: Successful AI-driven product launches could increase market share. This could boost revenue.
Supportive ifThere was news of successful sales or use of new AI-driven products.
Worry ifNo updates or lack of sales for AI-driven products in upcoming quarters.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows ADTRAN is growing. It shows management cares about stability.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported within the $275 million to $295 million range.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls outside the $275 million to $295 million range.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this area supports ADTRAN's long-term strategy. It shows demand is holding up despite challenges.
Supportive ifOptical networking revenue grew over 20% from last year.
Worry ifOptical networking revenue grew less than 20% from last year.
Why it matters: If this AI product does well, it could bring in more money. It shows ADTRAN is innovative.
Watch forGood customer feedback or sales for LiteWave800™ has been reported.
Also watch forBad feedback or low sales for LiteWave800™ has been reported.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$264 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $723 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,340 loss on $10,000 · 63.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.