ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.13-12.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADTN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -59.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 65.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADTN — director transition
Dated 2026-10-29
Director — Christian Terlinde: The filing discloses the routine election of a new independent director to an expanded board, which is a standard governance action rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: ADTRAN set Q3 revenue guidance at $275 million to $295 million. A result below the range would extend the recent shortfall.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue is below $275 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 revenue is at least $275 million.
Why it matters: Management said one customer's project delay hurt Q2 results. A later shipment could show the shortfall was temporary.
Watch forManagement confirms the project shipped late. Revenue is recorded in a later quarter.
Also watch forManagement says the project is still delayed or was canceled. Or it led to another revenue shortfall.
Why it matters: Revenue from cloud, enterprise, and government customers grew 47% year over year. Continued gains would support ADTRAN's effort to widen its customer base.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, cloud, enterprise, and government revenue grows from a year earlier.
Worry ifThat customer group's revenue is flat or lower year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$189 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $696 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,562 loss on $10,000 · 75.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.