Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.13-12.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.58 → 0.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ADTN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sustain positive earnings beats and progress on profitability | Recent earnings beats show progress on financial results. | Broken | Earnings miss guidance or show declining profitability | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk networking business with growth initiatives, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with recent performance below its industry cohort but no fresh break in the thesis.
The valuation evidence is mixed: ADTN is marked cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a 0.54 premium versus peers. The priced-in tag is justified, and its expectations gap is negative; valuation rose by 12.4 points recently, but the evidence does not specify the market’s exact assumptions.
Near term, results may remain uneven: ADTN missed its most recent quarter and has had erratic earnings surprises, while GAAP operating performance weakened from first-quarter income to a second-quarter loss. Over the multi-year view, customer diversification has measurable support, and LiteWave800 is a concrete AI infrastructure launch, but the supplied evidence does not show separate revenue from optical, AI, or cloud products.
A guidance cut on the next call would add pressure to the thesis, while rate cuts or stabilization among sector bellwethers could support the broader technology backdrop. The key company-level test is whether diversified customer growth and new infrastructure products translate into steadier revenue and improved operating performance.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ADTN’s thesis depends on turning customer growth and product launches into stronger, more consistent operating results. The evidence is mixed, with elevated risk and medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 5% to 9%. |
| Broken |
| Operating margin falls below 5% in Q2 2026 |
Operating margin: -3.58% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 5% to 9%. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 4, 2026-3.582125 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue between $283M and $303M in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $283M to $303M. | Broken | Revenue falls below $283M in Q2 2026 | Revenue: $281.146M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $283M to $303M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 4, 2026281,146,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.77 → $0.55 · observed estimates
$1.30B → $1.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.77 | $1,300,421,199 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.76 | $1,290,202,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.76 | $1,290,202,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.76 | $1,290,202,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.76 | $1,290,202,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.76 | $1,290,202,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.78 | $1,290,576,286 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.76 | $1,290,202,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.76 | $1,290,202,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.76 | $1,290,202,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.76 | $1,290,202,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.76 | $1,290,202,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.76 | $1,290,202,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.76 | $1,290,202,430 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.65 | $1,261,511,570 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.59 | $1,242,116,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.59 | $1,242,116,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.59 | $1,242,116,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.61 | $1,242,116,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.59 | $1,236,354,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.59 | $1,236,354,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.61 | $1,242,116,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.61 | $1,242,116,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.61 | $1,242,116,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.61 | $1,242,116,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.61 | $1,242,116,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.61 | $1,242,116,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.61 | $1,242,116,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.58 | $1,236,366,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.58 | $1,236,369,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.58 | $1,236,402,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.58 | $1,236,402,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.58 | $1,236,402,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.58 | $1,236,402,325 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.55 | $1,224,071,038 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.