Aeva Technologies, Inc. (AEVA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.69+2.82%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AEVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 52.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 70.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AEVA — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-05
Chief Financial Officer — Saurabh Sinha: Mr. Saurabh Sinha resigned as Chief Financial Officer to pursue another opportunity outside of the sensing industry.
Why it matters: New partnerships would show that Aeva's technology is being used in cars.
Supportive ifLook for news about new contracts or milestones with car makers.
Worry ifNo new updates or contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Scaling manufacturing is key. It helps meet customer demand and grow revenue.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new contract or partnership. This will help make more products.
Worry ifNo new updates or contracts were announced. This shows challenges in scaling.
Why it matters: New production programs can drive growth and show Aeva's market potential.
Watch forAeva announces a new production program or partnership in the next quarter.
Also watch forNo new production programs or partnerships were announced. This shows limited growth.
Why it matters: Progress on this agreement can show Aeva's chance to gain market share in AI data centers.
Supportive ifAeva will share good news about the hyperscaler agreement by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo news or delays on the hyperscaler agreement by the end of 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$484 on $10,000 · ±4.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,126 loss on $10,000 · 11.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,224 loss on $10,000 · 52.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If growth is higher, it shows strong demand for Aeva's products.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 50% year over year from $6.3 million in Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing this offering would give Aeva money to help it grow.
Supportive ifThey completed a $100 million follow-on offering. There was strong demand for it.
Worry ifThe offering does not close or is made much smaller.
Why it matters: The terms of the recent debt issuance could impact Aeva's cash flow and financial stability. This is crucial for funding growth.
Worry ifDebt terms are good, which helps cash flow.
Less concerning ifDebt terms are bad, causing cash flow worries.
Why it matters: New programs can drive growth and validate Aeva's technology. Lack of new opportunities could signal stagnation.
Supportive ifThey announce new production programs and partnerships.
Worry ifNo new production programs announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The CFO transition could impact financial strategy and investor confidence. A stable leadership team is crucial for growth.
Watch forA new CFO is appointed and has a strong background in technology finance.
Also watch forIt is taking longer to find a new CFO. This raises concerns about management stability.
Why it matters: New automotive contracts are vital for Aeva's growth. More wins indicate strong market acceptance.
Supportive ifAeva will announce new automotive contracts or partnerships in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new automotive contracts are announced. This shows possible challenges in the market.
Why it matters: Falling or steady revenue may show problems with growth and demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue shows growth of at least 5% compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue declines year over year or fails to grow compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Lower losses can show better cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifGAAP operating losses decrease below $34 million in Q3.
Worry ifGAAP operating losses remain at or above $34 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A new CFO can impact financial strategy and investor confidence. A smooth transition is key.
Watch forAeva announces the appointment of a permanent CFO within the next month.
Also watch forThe search for a new CFO takes longer than expected, causing uncertainty.