Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Aeva Technologies, Inc. (AEVA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.19-3.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AEVA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Pursue and secure additional production program opportunities | The company pursues new production programs to drive growth. | Intact | No new production program wins announced by end of 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, not an established compounder, because AEVA is loss-making and its commercial progress is still developing. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management priorities are partly on track, but the recent signal has turned cautious.
AEVA carries a 7.07% premium versus peers, while the valuation model has low confidence and points to optionality, meaning some value rests on possible future business growth. The evidence labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, but does not specify what revenue or growth expectations the market assumes.
Near term, revenue has stayed near recent highs but eased from $6.3 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $6.1 million in the second, and overall recent financial performance remains weak. Management says it is scaling manufacturing and pursuing new production programs; a recent earnings beat is positive, while a CFO transition and high business risk temper the picture.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether manufacturing scale and customer agreements produce sustained revenue growth and progress toward management’s record-revenue goal for 2026. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easier rates or stabilization among large technology companies could support the sector backdrop, but would not resolve AEVA’s execution risks.
For the 1-to-3-year view, AEVA has emerging customer and manufacturing progress, but its loss-making status, weak recent performance, and high risk leave the thesis dependent on delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Aeva Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows from -$1.68 in FY26 to less negative in FY27. |
| Improving |
| EPS loss worsens or remains flat beyond FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $-1.23 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows from -$1.68 in FY26 to less negative in FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-1.23 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue near $33 million in FY26 | A primary condition in Aeva Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$33 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $30 million in FY26 | Revenue: $6.136M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$33 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20266,136,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Please refer to our filings with the SEC, including our most recent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K.” Revenue was $6.136 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.55 → $-1.58 · observed estimates
$0.07B → $0.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.55 | $74,307,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.55 | $74,307,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.55 | $74,307,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.55 | $74,307,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.55 | $74,307,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.55 | $74,307,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.55 | $74,307,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.55 | $74,307,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.55 | $74,307,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.55 | $74,307,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.55 | $74,307,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.55 | $74,307,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.55 | $74,307,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.55 | $74,307,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.88 | $70,879,721 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.66 | $73,903,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.66 | $73,903,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.66 | $73,903,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.66 | $73,903,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.66 | $73,903,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.66 | $73,903,080 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.88 | $70,879,721 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.88 | $70,879,721 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.88 | $70,879,721 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.88 | $70,879,721 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.88 | $70,879,721 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.88 | $70,879,721 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.88 | $70,879,721 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.62 | $70,824,061 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.62 | $70,824,061 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.62 | $70,824,061 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.62 | $70,824,061 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.58 | $70,353,384 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.