Alamos Gold Inc (AGI)
NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.97-1.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — earnings per share at or above $2.48 in FY26: FY26 EPS $2.30 vs $2.48 target.
Alamos Gold benefits from steady gold demand in North America. Analysts expect earnings per share around $2.48 in 2026 and $3.21 in 2027. The company is profitable and has positive analyst sentiment. Gold price stability supports revenue near $2.5 billion this year.
Gold prices could weaken, pressuring revenue and earnings. Analyst EPS estimates have declined recently, signaling risk. A prolonged market downturn could reduce profitability and cash flow.
The market reflects some uncertainty with recent EPS estimate cuts and a 38% drawdown from highs. Our view is cautious given the selloff and lack of clear guidance, differing from analyst optimism.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.48 in FY26
Breaks if: net profit margin turns negative over next 4 quarters
Breaks if: revenue falls significantly below $2.5 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity within the Materials sector. The current thesis state is considered insufficient due to a lack of recent financial performance history.
The market appears to have low fragility priced in, meaning there are no immediate concerns reflected in the valuation. However, the recent drop in sector context indicates that expectations may be cautious.
Fundamentals may face challenges in the near term, with a 33% probability of missing expectations. The sector has seen peers missing targets, which adds to the uncertainty.
The thesis hinges on inflation trends and the performance of sector bellwethers like NEM, RGLD, and CDE. Favorable movements in these areas could support AGI, while negative signals could lead to a decline in momentum.
In the next 1 to 3 years, AGI's outlook remains uncertain, with several factors influencing its trajectory. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.