Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Alamos Gold Inc (AGI)
NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-11-04
$31.08+3.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.83 → 2.72 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AGI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
earnings per share at or above $2.48 in FY26 | Analysts expect earnings per share around $2.48 in 2026 and $3.21 in 2027. | Broken | EPS falls below $2.48 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AGI is a cyclical Materials name, so its business setting is sensitive to shifts in sector conditions and the broader economy. The long-term thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial performance history to assess it.
The evidence gives no valuation level or market expectations to assess, so whether AGI is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear. The priced-in fragility tier is low, with no fragility gates triggered, but this does not establish what investors expect from the business.
Near term, the sector backdrop is a tailwind, and the risk label has eased from high to elevated. However, peers have recently been missing, the industry has a high miss rate, and weakening jobs data could increase recession concerns for cyclical names.
Over the coming months, continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as NEM, RGLD, and CDE could sustain sector support for AGI. Misses or lower guidance from those companies, or further weakening in jobs data, could weaken that support and weigh on the broader cyclical setting.
For a 1-to-3-year view, the evidence is too limited to judge AGI’s company-level trajectory, and the current setup depends heavily on sector conditions and economic risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Alamos Gold Inc's published investment case. The stated target is positive net margins. |
| Intact |
| net profit margin turns negative over next 4 quarters |
Net margin: 32.45% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: positive net margins. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Oct 29, 202632.445141 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
revenue near $2.5 billion in FY26 | Gold price stability supports revenue near $2.5 billion this year. | Broken | revenue falls significantly below $2.5 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.24 → $2.72 · observed estimates
$3.04B → $2.80B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.24 | $3,041,317,600 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.19 | $3,017,647,000 | 13 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.19 | $3,017,647,000 | 13 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.05 | $3,156,883,458 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.19 | $3,017,647,000 | 13 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.21 | $2,860,495,090 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.19 | $3,126,196,070 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.18 | $3,126,196,070 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.12 | $3,109,556,062 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.14 | $3,140,847,540 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.14 | $3,140,847,540 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.14 | $3,140,847,540 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.13 | $3,103,295,580 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.13 | $3,103,295,580 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.13 | $3,103,295,580 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.12 | $3,193,096,670 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.12 | $3,193,096,670 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.12 | $3,193,096,670 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.07 | $3,103,289,310 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.07 | $3,103,289,310 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.07 | $3,103,289,310 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.86 | $3,065,256,062 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.86 | $3,065,256,062 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.86 | $3,065,256,062 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.86 | $3,065,256,062 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.86 | $3,065,256,062 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.86 | $3,065,256,062 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.86 | $3,065,256,062 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,576 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,576 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,576 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,576 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,576 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,576 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,576 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.83 | $3,055,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.80 | $3,041,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.80 | $3,041,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.80 | $3,041,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.80 | $3,041,970,580 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.80 | $3,041,970,580 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.81 | $3,042,005,310 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.84 | $3,056,159,157 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.84 | $3,056,159,157 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.84 | $3,056,159,157 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.84 | $3,056,159,157 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.84 | $3,056,159,157 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.84 | $3,056,159,157 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.84 | $3,066,968,128 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.83 | $3,066,968,128 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.83 | $3,066,968,128 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.83 | $3,066,968,128 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.83 | $3,047,783,412 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.83 | $3,057,861,754 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.83 | $3,057,861,754 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.83 | $3,057,861,754 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.83 | $3,057,861,754 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.83 | $3,057,861,754 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.83 | $3,057,861,754 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.83 | $3,050,361,754 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.82 | $3,048,618,938 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.82 | $3,048,618,938 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.82 | $3,048,618,938 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.82 | $3,048,618,938 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.82 | $3,048,618,938 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.82 | $3,048,618,938 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.82 | $3,048,618,938 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.93 | $3,075,848,987 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.93 | $3,075,848,987 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.92 | $3,075,848,987 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.90 | $3,075,848,987 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.90 | $3,075,848,987 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.90 | $3,075,848,987 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.86 | $3,051,841,187 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.86 | $3,051,841,187 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.86 | $3,051,841,187 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.86 | $3,051,841,187 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.85 | $3,040,774,520 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.85 | $3,040,774,520 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.83 | $2,887,460,098 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.78 | $2,854,124,088 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.78 | $2,854,124,088 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.78 | $2,854,124,088 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.76 | $2,818,937,725 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.72 | $2,803,408,213 | 7 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.