Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$111.36-2.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AGYS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers
AGYS — officer change
Dated 2026-06-22
Chief Executive Officer and President — Ramesh Srinivasan: Mr. Srinivasan's employment agreement was renewed with continued roles and new equity grants.
Why it matters: Hitting this margin shows management wants to make more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was 24% or higher for Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was below 21% for Q2.
Why it matters: This margin shows good cost control. It also shows how well the company operates.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is 24% or higher in the next earnings report.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 21% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show strong demand for Agilysys' software and help growth.
Supportive ifSubscription revenue growth is at 32% or more year-over-year in the next quarters.
Worry ifSubscription revenue growth is less than 30% compared to last year.
Why it matters: New AI software modules could bring in more revenue. This shows Agilysys' innovation.
Supportive ifRevenue from AI software modules adds a lot to total revenue.
Worry ifRevenue from AI-native software modules fails to meet expectations or shows no growth.
Why it matters: If this number is higher, it shows strong growth in the business.
Supportive ifTotal revenue reported above $90 million for Q2.
Worry ifTotal revenue reported below $87 million for Q2.
Why it matters: Falling short of this target would raise concerns about growth momentum in the business.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 total revenue is below $368 million.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 total revenue is above $373 million.
Why it matters: Successful launches could help make products stand out and boost sales.
Supportive ifNew AI software modules or features are being announced.
Worry ifNo new AI-driven product announcements in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$214 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $533 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,593 loss on $10,000 · 55.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.