Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Agilysys, Inc. (AGYS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$119.76-2.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.20 → 3.29 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AGYS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA margin reaches 24% | A primary condition in Agilysys, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 24%. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 21.2% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented software business with recent strong financial performance, rather than a turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and risk is high.
The evidence points to an expensive valuation, with a premium of about two times versus peers and a stretched expectations tag. The model has low confidence, but the market appears to assume continued growth and execution; the expectations gap is modest.
Near term, recent results show strong revenue and subscription growth, higher adjusted EBITDA, and raised full-year guidance. Management’s growth and profitability priorities have evidence of progress, while the effect of AI features remains unclear; a guidance cut after a recent increase would damage credibility.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on sustaining revenue and subscription growth while improving profitability. A reversal of raised guidance is the main company-specific risk, while easier interest rates and stabilization among large technology peers could support the sector backdrop.
AGYS’s operating momentum supports an intact multi-year view, but its expensive valuation and high risk make delivery against raised expectations central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Agilysys, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain AI integration progress in R&D and products. |
| Intact |
| No meaningful AI progress or product improvements reported |
AI progress: 1 new deployment (7 Cedars) + FY27 rev guide raised to $374M-$378M Agilysys raised FY2027 revenue outlook to $374M-$378M and reported a Q2 earnings beat, alongside new AI-driven client adoption. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Srinivasan continued, “Sweeping AI related changes across the entire organization, especially in R&D, are helping us to improve operating leverage across several business areas and increase the pace of competitive product differentiation of our hospitality focused software solution ecosystem.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Annual revenue reaches $365-$370 million | A primary condition in Agilysys, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $365 million. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $365 million in FY27 | Revenue: $93.36M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $365 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 26, 202693,360,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Subscription revenue grows at least 30% year-over-year | Subscription revenue grows over 30% yearly. | Broken | Subscription revenue growth falls below 30% YoY in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.19 → $3.29 · observed estimates
$0.43B → $0.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.19 | $427,944,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.19 | $427,944,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.19 | $427,944,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.19 | $427,944,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.19 | $427,944,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.20 | $433,582,738 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.20 | $433,582,738 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.20 | $433,582,738 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.20 | $433,582,738 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.20 | $433,582,738 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.20 | $433,582,738 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.20 | $433,582,738 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.20 | $433,582,738 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.20 | $433,582,738 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.20 | $433,582,750 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.29 | $440,697,875 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.29 | $440,697,875 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.29 | $440,697,875 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.29 | $440,697,875 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.29 | $440,697,875 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.29 | $440,697,875 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.29 | $440,697,875 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.29 | $440,697,875 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.29 | $440,697,875 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.