Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.69-1.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ALKT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 74.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 54.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 120 industry peers
ALKT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026 Alkami Technology, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information set forth in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exc…
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change how a company performs. This may affect investor trust.
Watch forThe market reacted well. Performance got better after the change.
Also watch forThe market reacted badly. Performance metrics fell after the change.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program may signal management's confidence in the stock. It can also affect share price positively.
Supportive ifThere are plans for buybacks or news about completed buybacks.
Worry ifNo updates or a pause in the buyback program.
Why it matters: Adding more clients shows strong market demand for Alkami's platform. It can drive future revenue growth.
Supportive ifManagement reports over 40 new client logos added in 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 40 new client logos added in 2026.
Why it matters: Adding new clients shows the company's ability to grow its market presence and client base.
Supportive ifAt least 10 new digital banking clients added in Q3.
Worry ifFewer than 10 new digital banking clients added in Q3.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $546 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,501 loss on $10,000 · 45.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows Alkami is making more money. It backs up management's goals.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is at or above $97.9M.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $90M.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth indicates a potential slowdown. It could impact Alkami's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Starting the share repurchase program signals confidence in the company's value and can support stock price.
Supportive ifAlkami starts buying back shares from its $100 million program.
Worry ifNo share buybacks will happen in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating revenue goals shows strong demand and growth. It shows management believes in their plan.
Supportive ifGAAP total revenue for Q3 is reported at or above $134.2 million.
Worry ifGAAP total revenue for Q3 falls below $132.7 million.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating EBITDA goals shows good cost control. It also shows efficient operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is reported at or above $24.3 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 falls below $23.5 million.
Why it matters: Starting the share buyback program shows management believes in the company's worth. It may help the stock price.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about the first share buyback. This is part of the $100 million program.
Worry ifNo share repurchases are announced by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Faster user growth shows strong demand for Alkami's solutions. This can increase revenue.
Supportive ifDigital banking users increase by more than 0.6 million in Q3.
Worry ifDigital banking users increase by less than 0.4 million in Q3.