Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.69-1.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Alkami aims to grow revenue from $443M in 2025 to about $530M in 2026. Profitability is improving with adjusted EBITDA guidance rising from $56.5M to nearly $98M. The company is gaining new partnerships and buying back stock. These show Alkami is fixing its business and growing.
Growth targets have been cut recently, showing risks to the turnaround. Competition and buyout talk may slow revenue gains. The company is still loss-making and faces elevated risk.
The price is about 24% above our fair value near $15, reflecting analyst expectations of 25% revenue growth. Our view is aligned but cautious due to recent guidance cuts and market pullback.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $56.5M in FY26
Alkami targets adjusted EBITDA in the range of $94.9 million to $97.9 million for fiscal year 2026.
Achieve adjusted EBITDA in the range of $96.0 million to $98.0 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA increased from $12.1 million in 2025-Q1 to $19.4 million in 2026-Q2. Management provided guidance for fiscal year 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $96.0 million to $98.0 million. The trajectory is delivering with improving EBITDA and maintained guidance.
“Guidance for fiscal year 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $96.0 million to $98.0 million.”
“Guidance for fiscal year 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $94.9 million to $97.9 million.”
Breaks if: Failure to announce new partnerships or halt buybacks
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $443M in FY26
Achieve GAAP total revenue in the range of $528.0 million to $531.0 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $112.1 million in 2025-Q2 to $129.8 million in 2026-Q2. Management provided guidance for fiscal year 2026 GAAP total revenue in the range of $528.0 million to $531.0 million. The trajectory is delivering with consistent revenue growth and maintained guidance.
“Guidance for fiscal year 2026 GAAP total revenue in the range of $528.0 million to $531.0 million.”
“Guidance for fiscal year 2026 GAAP total revenue in the range of $527.1 million to $530.9 million.”
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation. ALKT has shown some progress in revenue and EBITDA growth, but it remains loss-making and faces risks from recent earnings misses.
The market seems to price in a fragile situation, with an expensive valuation compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may not fully believe in the company's recovery potential.
Management is focused on revenue growth and expanding its client base, with some success in user additions. However, recent financial performance has been weak, and the company has a history of earnings misses, which adds uncertainty.
The future of ALKT hinges on management's ability to meet guidance and improve earnings quality. Additionally, external factors like Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and performance from sector leaders could significantly impact the stock.
Over the next one to three years, ALKT's trajectory will depend on its operational execution and market conditions. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Revenue growth to $530.9 million in 2026 supports the read. However, the latest earnings miss poses a threat to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.