Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.35+0.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.08 → 1.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ALKT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA target near $97.9M in fiscal 2026 | Profitability is improving with adjusted EBITDA guidance rising from $56.5M to nearly $98M. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $56.5M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is on watch: company momentum has improved, but recent financial performance remains weak and confidence is medium.
ALKT trades at a 1.41-times premium to peers, with a durable premium identified as the main valuation driver. The expectations gap is modestly negative, but model confidence is low, so the evidence on what the market assumes is limited. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility.
Near term, revenue growth and reported client and product adoption support management’s expansion priority. Profitability progress is mixed: management reported adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, but the GAAP operating loss was slightly larger in Q3 than Q1. Recent results include an in-line October event after a July miss, while the supplied evidence flags a run of misses as a risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on revenue and adoption gains translating into better GAAP profitability, not only adjusted EBITDA progress. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; Fed rate cuts or stabilization among large technology peers could improve the sector backdrop. Evidence for the scale and timing of these scenarios is limited.
For a 1 to 3 year view, ALKT shows improving company momentum but has not yet resolved the central tension between growth and persistent losses. The thesis remains watchful, with execution and profitability the main tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Alkami Technology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or expand partnerships and execute buybacks as planned. |
| Intact |
| Failure to announce new partnerships or halt buybacks |
Buyback $100M active; partnerships maintained Buyback plan active; strategic review concluded with positive revenue guidance. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to about $530.9M in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Alkami Technology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$530.9M total revenue. | Intact | Revenue falls below $443M in FY26 | Revenue: $134.911M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$530.9M total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026134,911,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.13 → $1.08 · observed estimates
$0.62B → $0.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.13 | $620,765,460 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.10 | $620,448,790 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.10 | $620,448,790 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.10 | $620,448,790 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.10 | $620,448,790 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.10 | $620,448,790 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.10 | $620,448,790 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.07 | $619,141,950 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.07 | $619,141,950 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.07 | $619,141,950 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.09 | $619,141,950 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.09 | $619,141,950 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.09 | $619,141,950 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.09 | $619,141,950 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.08 | $619,138,749 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.09 | $619,141,950 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.09 | $619,141,950 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.09 | $619,141,950 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.09 | $619,141,950 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.09 | $619,141,950 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.09 | $619,141,950 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.08 | $619,138,749 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.08 | $619,138,749 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.08 | $619,138,749 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.08 | $619,138,749 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.08 | $619,138,749 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.08 | $619,138,749 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.08 | $619,138,749 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.09 | $619,121,405 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.09 | $619,121,405 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.09 | $619,121,405 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.09 | $619,121,405 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.09 | $618,177,999 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.09 | $618,178,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.08 | $618,181,818 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.08 | $618,181,674 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.08 | $618,181,674 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.08 | $618,181,674 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.08 | $618,178,874 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.08 | $618,178,874 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.08 | $618,178,874 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.08 | $618,178,874 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.08 | $618,178,874 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.10 | $618,178,874 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.08 | $608,757,879 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.08 | $607,470,379 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.08 | $607,470,379 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.08 | $607,470,379 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.08 | $607,470,379 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.08 | $607,470,379 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.