ALLE
AllegionNYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ALLE has a composite score of 29.0 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 76.5 and reflects strengths in valuation (87.4) and quality (65.3), while facing challenges in sector performance (16.7) and momentum (9.5). The analysis is provisional and considers various macroeconomic factors as top drivers.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.02
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.28 → $2.21 (-2.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 9 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.7% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
10 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-04-15ALLE — share buyback announcedimpact 0.29
- 2025-12-09ALLE — credit agreementimpact 0.26
- 2025-05-27ALLE — General Counsel transitionimpact 0.22
- 2025-12-09ALLE — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.21
- 2024-12-05ALLE — director transitionimpact 0.14
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase revenue growth outlookgrowthbehind14% progress
2/17: “The company is raising its full-year 2026 reported revenue growth outlook to a range of 6% to 8%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.8 billion in 2024 to $4.1 billion in 2025. The company has consistently raised its revenue growth outlook, indicating a focus on growth, but the trajectory shows limited progress in achieving higher growth rates.
- 2.Affirm adjusted EPS outlookgrowthbehind14% progress
2/17: “The company is affirming the outlook for full-year 2026 adjusted EPS to be in the range of $8.70 to $8.90.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EPS increased from $7.53 in 2024 to $8.14 in 2025. The company has affirmed its EPS outlook, showing a consistent focus on maintaining earnings growth, with some progress in achieving higher EPS.
- 3.Authorize share repurchase programcapital allocationwatchprovisional
4/15: “Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 33%; 252d 25%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −26%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 0.80 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 59/100, drawdown 48/100, beta 80/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase revenue growth outlook
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Allegion aims to increase its revenue growth outlook for the fiscal year 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.8 billion in 2024 to $4.1 billion in 2025. The company has consistently raised its revenue growth outlook, indicating a focus on growth, but the trajectory shows limited progress in achieving higher growth rates.
14%CEO/CFO:“The company is raising its full-year 2026 reported revenue growth outlook to a range of 6% to 8%.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-17Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“The company is raising its full-year 2026 reported revenue growth outlook to a range of 6% to 8%.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“The company is raising its 2025 full-year revenue growth outlook, which is expected to be 7.0% to 8.0% on a reported basis.”
- #2
Affirm adjusted EPS outlook
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Allegion is affirming its adjusted EPS outlook for the fiscal year 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EPS increased from $7.53 in 2024 to $8.14 in 2025. The company has affirmed its EPS outlook, showing a consistent focus on maintaining earnings growth, with some progress in achieving higher EPS.
14%CEO/CFO:“The company is affirming the outlook for full-year 2026 adjusted EPS to be in the range of $8.70 to $8.90.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-17Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“The company is affirming the outlook for full-year 2026 adjusted EPS to be in the range of $8.70 to $8.90.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“The company is raising the outlook for 2025 full-year EPS and expects it to be in the range of $7.45 to $7.55.”
- #3
Authorize share repurchase program
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04The Board authorized the repurchase of up to $500 million of the company’s ordinary shares under the program.
Mixed →WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”8-KSource dated 2026-04-15First seen 2026-05-04provisional
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
50 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALLE Allegion | +29 | inexpensive | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-28)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-28)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2811d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, Allegion plc (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 results. The information in this Form 8-K and the exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amend…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 51 - 2026-04-1523d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On April 15, 2026, the Board replenished the funds available for the repurchase of the Company’s ordinary shares under its existing share repurchase program and, as a result, authorized the repurchase of a total amount of up to $500 million of the Company’s ordinary shares under the program. Share repurchases may be made from time-to-time in open market, accelerated stock repurchase or privately negotiated transactions, including pursuant to one or more Rule 10b5-1 trading plans…
capital allocationpositivescore 30 - 2026-02-172mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 17, 2026, Allegion plc (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter 2025 results. The information in this Form 8-K and the exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as a…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 10 - 2025-12-095mo agoItem 1.01
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 9, 2025, Allegion plc (the “Company”) entered into the First Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “First Amendment”), dated as of December 9, 2025, by and among the Company, Allegion US Holding Company Inc. (“Allegion US Holding”) and Allegion (Ireland) Finance Designated Activity Company (“Allegion Finance”), as borrowers, Bank of America, N.A. (“BofA”), as administrative agent, and the lenders and issuers from time to time party thereto,…
capital allocationneutralscore 2 - 2025-12-095mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
capital allocationnegativescore 2
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.