AOS
A. O. SmithNYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, AOS has a composite score of 12.4, categorized with a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 63.2 and reflects a moderate risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth and labor conditions, with a notable valuation score of 87.6 indicating it is considered inexpensive. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.12
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.09 → $0.94 (-13.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 9 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
6 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2025-08-28AOS — CEO transitionimpact 0.40
- 2025-04-25AOS — CEO transitionimpact 0.29
- 2026-01-06AOS — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.22
- 2026-01-06AOS — acquisition announcedimpact 0.15
- 2024-05-09AOS — President transitionimpact 0.08
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase consolidated sales by 2% to 5%growthmixed65% progressprovisional
1/29: “Our outlook for 2026...projects our consolidated sales to increase 2% to 5% compared to 2025.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $3,818M in 2024 to $3,830M in 2025. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the 2% to 5% growth target, indicating a need for stronger execution to meet the 2026 goal.
- 2.Manage challenging conditions in Chinaotherwatchprovisional
1/29: “We expect the challenges in the China market to continue and are forecasting a mid-single digit sales decline.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. China sales decreased 12% in 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges. The company continues to face headwinds in China, with limited progress in reversing the sales decline.
- 3.Lower full-year 2026 EPS outlookotherwatchprovisional
4/30: “2026 full year EPS guidance lowered to: Diluted EPS of between $3.60 and $3.90.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance lowered to $3.60-$3.90 for 2026, reflecting a cautious outlook amid challenging conditions. The trajectory indicates a need for strategic adjustments to meet financial targets.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 33%; 252d 26%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −27%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.00 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 57/100, drawdown 46/100, beta 100/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase consolidated sales by 2% to 5%
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04A. O. Smith aims to increase its consolidated sales by 2% to 5% in 2026 compared to 2025.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $3,818M in 2024 to $3,830M in 2025. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the 2% to 5% growth target, indicating a need for stronger execution to meet the 2026 goal.
65%CEO/CFO:“Our outlook for 2026...projects our consolidated sales to increase 2% to 5% compared to 2025.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-29Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Our outlook for 2026...projects our consolidated sales to increase 2% to 5% compared to 2025.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Consolidated sales projected to range from flat to up 1%.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Consolidated sales to grow between 1% and 3%.”
- #2
Manage challenging conditions in China
OtherNew since 2026-05-04A. O. Smith is focused on managing the ongoing challenging market conditions in China.
WatchStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. China sales decreased 12% in 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges. The company continues to face headwinds in China, with limited progress in reversing the sales decline.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“We expect the challenges in the China market to continue and are forecasting a mid-single digit sales decline.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-01-29Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“We expect the challenges in the China market to continue and are forecasting a mid-single digit sales decline.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Continued economic challenges and soft consumer demand led to a 4% year-over-year decrease in local currency sales.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“China sales decreased 12% in local currency year-over-year.”
- #3
Lower full-year 2026 EPS outlook
OtherNew since 2026-05-04A. O. Smith has lowered its full-year 2026 EPS outlook due to challenging conditions.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance lowered to $3.60-$3.90 for 2026, reflecting a cautious outlook amid challenging conditions. The trajectory indicates a need for strategic adjustments to meet financial targets.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“2026 full year EPS guidance lowered to: Diluted EPS of between $3.60 and $3.90.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“2026 full year EPS guidance lowered to: Diluted EPS of between $3.60 and $3.90.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“We have lowered our full year 2025 sales outlook to a projection of flat to up 1%.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AOS A. O. Smith | +12 | inexpensive | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently LOWERED as of 2026-04-30)+16 pts
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-309d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, A. O. Smith Corporation (“the Company”) issued a news release announcing the Company’s results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s news release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Current Report”) and is incorporated by reference herein.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 54 - 2026-01-293mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 29, 2026, A. O. Smith Corporation (“the Company”) issued a news release announcing the Company’s results for the year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s news release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Current Report”) and is incorporated by reference herein.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7 - 2026-01-064mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On November 12, 2025, the Company disclosed that it had signed a definitive agreement to acquire Leonard Valve. Leonard Valve, together with its Heat-Timer brand, is a leading designer and manufacturer of thermostatic and digital mixing valves and temperature control solutions used in commercial and institutional applications. On January 6, 2026, the Company consummated the acquisition of Leonard Valve. A copy of the Company's news release relating to the consummation is attache…
mna activitypositivescore 3 - 2026-01-064mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On January 5, 2026, A. O. Smith Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) among the Company, the various lenders party thereto, and Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent (the “Agent”). The Credit Agreement provided for an unsecured term loan in the amount of $470 million that matures on January 5, 2029. The Company borrowed the…
capital allocationnegativescore 3 - 2025-10-286mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 28, 2025, A. O. Smith Corporation (“the Company”) issued a news release announcing the Company’s results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the Company’s news release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Current Report”) and is incorporated by reference herein.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 1
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.