American Outdoor Brands, Inc. (AOUT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.48+44.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AOUT
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 AOUT trades at 0.9× p/s, in line with its 0.9× p/s peer median — but our blended $9.42 fair value sits well below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well below the analyst range and its earnings are too depressed to value on P/E (we anchor on sales instead). Analysts target $14–$17. Note: our $9.42 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($14–$17). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $15.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $11.30 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $13.95 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $11.77 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$13.50 – $17.00 (median $15.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-09-04
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $20.25 |
| 14.4 |
| 1.40 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $8.14 | 17.3 | 0.47 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $14.48 | 0.9 | 15.78 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $10.49 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $9.02 | 17.3 | 0.52 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $13.34 | 14.4 | 0.92 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $16.42 | 17.3 | 0.95 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $16.46 | 0.9 | 17.94 | guidance | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $10.10 | 14.4 | 0.70 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $17.59 | 17.3 | 1.02 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $17.63 | 0.9 | 19.22 | guidance | medium |