American Outdoor Brands, Inc. (AOUT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$17.25-3.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AOUT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 52.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 6 industry peers
AOUT — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-06
Director — Kevin D. Leary: Kevin D. Leary was appointed to the Board of Directors and will serve on specific committees.
Why it matters: Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $1.2 million, or 3.1% of sales. The full-year goal needs stronger results in the next quarters.
Supportive ifFiscal Q2 adjusted EBITDA tops $3.5 million and AOUT keeps its full-year margin goal of 6.5% to 7.5%.
Worry ifFiscal Q2 adjusted EBITDA falls below $3.0 million, or AOUT cuts its full-year margin goal.
Why it matters: AOUT raised its full-year sales outlook after Q1 sales grew 4.3% without the shifted orders. Q2 results will test that growth plan.
Supportive ifOn December 8, fiscal Q2 sales top $50 million, the midpoint of the $200 million to $210 million full-year sales range.
Worry ifFiscal Q2 sales come in below $47 million, near the prior-year Q2 level, or AOUT cuts its full-year sales range.
Why it matters: The board approved a buyback through September 2027. Actual purchases will show whether the company uses this part of its capital plan.
Supportive ifAOUT reports share repurchases under the plan, which began October 1, 2026.
Worry ifAOUT reports no repurchases in later filings or ends the plan before September 30, 2027.
Why it matters: Point-of-sale growth shows whether shoppers still want AOUT's products. Q1 POS rose in both groups.
Supportive ifFiscal Q2 POS grows year over year in both Outdoor Lifestyle and Shooting Sports.
Worry ifPOS falls year over year in either group, after Q1 gains of 6% and 3%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$161 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $429 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,133 loss on $10,000 · 31.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: AOUT launched this fishing app with Major League Fishing. More users and sales would show that its connected product plan is gaining traction.
Supportive ifAOUT reports more SCORETRACKER LIVE use and BUBBA sales linked to it in a later results update.
Worry ifAOUT reports weak app use or no sales lift from SCORETRACKER LIVE in a later results update.