American Outdoor Brands, Inc. (AOUT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.48+44.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AOUT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 53.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 48.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AOUT — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-06
Director — Kevin D. Leary: Kevin D. Leary was appointed to the Board of Directors and will serve on specific committees.
Why it matters: Keeping margins steady helps profits and shows how well costs are managed.
Watch forGross margin remains above 42% in fiscal 2027.
Also watch forGross margin falls below 42% in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Growth in point-of-sale (POS) shows strong demand from consumers. This helps management's plans for growth and new ideas.
Supportive ifQ3 POS growth exceeds 4% year-over-year, similar to the 4% growth in fiscal 2026.
Worry ifQ3 POS growth falls below 0% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Achieving this sales target would confirm management's goal of returning to growth. It reflects strong brand performance and demand.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 net sales reported within the range of $200 million to $210 million.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 net sales were below $200 million.
Why it matters: This margin shows progress in making more money. It shows good cost management.
Supportive ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin was between 6.5% and 7.5%.
Worry ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin was less than 6.5%.
Why it matters: Sustained POS growth indicates strong consumer demand and brand strength. It supports future sales growth.
Supportive ifPOS growth reported above 4% for key brands.
Worry ifPOS growth reported below 4% for key brands.
Why it matters: A successful launch would prove the innovation plan. It could help future sales.
Supportive ifGood consumer feedback and sales came after the launch of SCORETRACKER LIVE.
Worry ifPoor consumer response or low sales reported after the launch.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$199 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $468 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,133 loss on $10,000 · 31.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.