APO
Apollo Global ManagementNYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, APO has a composite score of -5.1, indicating a mixed signal. The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 75.5 and elevated risk, with macro factors contributing negatively at -7.7. Key drivers include potential guidance changes and sector trends, with scenarios indicating both favorable and unfavorable outcomes. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.00
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.22 → $2.23 (+0.6% / 30d). 3 raised, 10 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
9 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-03-30APO — share buyback announcedimpact 0.36
- 2025-09-30APO — President transitionimpact 0.31
- 2026-03-30APO — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…impact 0.28
- 2025-07-02APO — Principal Accounting Officer transitionimpact 0.24
- 2025-11-07APO — debt issuanceimpact 0.24
Stated priorities
5 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase annual dividend by 10%capital allocationmixed34% progress
2/9: “Apollo intends to increase the annual amount 10% from $2.04 per share to $2.25 per share.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Apollo plans to increase the annual dividend by 10% from $2.04 to $2.25 per share. This commitment is newly stated and financials show a net income of $784M in 2025-Q4, indicating capacity to support this increase.
- 2.Record origination activity exceeding $300 billiongrowthmixed60% progress
2/9: “2025 highlights include record origination activity exceeding $300 billion.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Apollo reported record origination activity exceeding $300 billion for 2025. This aligns with their strategic growth focus, although specific financial impacts are not detailed in the provided financials.
- 3.Drive record fee and spread related earningsgrowthmixed60% progress
2/9: “Driving record fee and spread related earnings.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Apollo aims to drive record fee and spread related earnings. While the financials show a net income of $784M in 2025-Q4, specific earnings from fees and spreads are not detailed, indicating limited visibility into progress.
- 4.Announce share buybackcapital allocationwatchprovisional
3/30: “Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”
- 5.Issue senior notescapital allocationwatchprovisional
3/30: “Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 38%; 252d 36%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −35%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 1.58 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 39/100, drawdown 30/100, beta 42/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase annual dividend by 10%
Capital allocationApollo intends to increase the annual dividend from $2.04 to $2.25 per share.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Apollo plans to increase the annual dividend by 10% from $2.04 to $2.25 per share. This commitment is newly stated and financials show a net income of $784M in 2025-Q4, indicating capacity to support this increase.
34%CEO/CFO:“Apollo intends to increase the annual amount 10% from $2.04 per share to $2.25 per share.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-09Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-09Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Apollo intends to increase the annual amount 10% from $2.04 per share to $2.25 per share.”
- #2
Record origination activity exceeding $300 billion
GrowthApollo achieved record origination activity exceeding $300 billion in 2025.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Apollo reported record origination activity exceeding $300 billion for 2025. This aligns with their strategic growth focus, although specific financial impacts are not detailed in the provided financials.
60%CEO/CFO:“2025 highlights include record origination activity exceeding $300 billion.”Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-09Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-09Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“2025 highlights include record origination activity exceeding $300 billion.”
- #3
Drive record fee and spread related earnings
GrowthApollo aims to drive record fee and spread related earnings through strategic initiatives.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Apollo aims to drive record fee and spread related earnings. While the financials show a net income of $784M in 2025-Q4, specific earnings from fees and spreads are not detailed, indicating limited visibility into progress.
60%CEO/CFO:“Driving record fee and spread related earnings.”Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-09Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-09Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“Driving record fee and spread related earnings.”
- #4
Announce share buyback
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Apollo Global Management announced a share buyback as part of its capital allocation strategy.
Behind →WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”8-KSource dated 2026-03-30First seen 2026-05-04provisional - #5
Issue senior notes
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Apollo issued $750 million in senior notes to support its financial strategy.
Behind →WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“Not mentioned in most recent disclosures.”8-KSource dated 2026-03-30First seen 2026-05-04provisional
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
31 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
APO Apollo Global Management | -5.1 | full | elevated |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-09)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-09)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-063d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Apollo Global Management, Inc. (“Apollo”) issued a summary press release and a detailed earnings presentation announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the summary press release and the earnings presentation are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncement—score 62 - 2026-04-011mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information contained in
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 34 - 2026-03-301mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 30, 2026, Apollo Global Management, Inc. (the “Company”) issued $750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.700% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”), pursuant to a previously announced underwritten public offering (the “Offering”). The Notes were issued pursuant to an indenture, dated as of March 30, 2026 (the “Indenture”), among the Company, each of the guarantors named therein and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as tru…
capital allocationpositivescore 27 - 2026-03-301mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in
capital allocationnegativescore 21 - 2026-02-092mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 9, 2026, Apollo Global Management, Inc. (“Apollo”) issued a summary press release and a detailed earnings presentation announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the summary press release and the earnings presentation are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 10
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.