Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AQUA METALS INC (AQMS)
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.17-4.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AQMS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
management quality and stability | A primary condition in AQUA METALS INC's published investment case. The stated target is management score >= 40. | Intact | management score falls below 30 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, not an established earnings compounder. The multi-year thesis is still in a watch state: management has advanced technical and commercialization work, but the business remains loss-making and evidence confidence is low.
The snapshot gives no valuation or expectations data, so it does not show whether AQMS is cheap or expensive versus peers or what the market already assumes. The recent price reaction was down, but that alone does not establish what expectations are priced in.
Near term, losses and negative cash flow are likely to continue while Headwaters ARC moves through site diligence, partner selection, feedstock agreements, and capital formation. Management reports more than 5,000 cumulative operating hours at its Innovation Center, but there is no revenue yet; execution and funding remain key risks.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on turning technical validation into phased commercialization and reaching milestones while maintaining capital discipline. Near term, results may also be affected by sector signals from WM, RSG, and CLH, and by weakening employment data that could increase recession concerns for cyclical businesses.
AQMS has made technical progress, but weak recent performance, ongoing losses, and high risk leave the long-term thesis unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Aqua Metals aims to grow lead recycling in the US. |
| Intact |
| revenue growth turns negative |
Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Revenue growth from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
move to positive earnings and cash flow | A primary condition in AQUA METALS INC's published investment case. The stated target is free cash flow yield > 0%. | Broken | free cash flow yield remains negative | Valuation inputs unavailable A completed valuation measurement is required. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-10.00 → $-10.00 · observed estimates
$0.05B → $0.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-10.00 | $54,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.