AQUA METALS INC (AQMS)
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.00+3.81%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AQMS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AQMS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-02-11
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Term Sheet On February 6, 2026, Aqua Metals, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company” or “Aqua Metals”), entered into a term sheet (the “Term Sheet”) with Lion Energy, LLC, a Utah limited liability company (“Lion Energy”), and certain members of Lion Energy (the “Members”), as amended and restated on February 10, 2026, setting forth certain terms and conditions pursuant to which the Company intends to acquire all of the issued and outstanding equ…
Why it matters: A rebound in sector growth could benefit Aqua Metals' performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth slows down to below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Better financial results would show Aqua Metals is fixing its losses.
Supportive ifNet income improves to less than -$3 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income worsens or remains below -$4 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Getting money is important. It helps fund the commercialization of Headwaters ARC.
Supportive ifAqua Metals reports they raised capital or made financing deals by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo updates on capital formation efforts by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Securing funding is crucial for moving forward with the Headwaters ARC project. It shows financial health and commitment.
Supportive ifSecured financing or capital for Headwaters ARC will be announced by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo progress in capital formation reported by the end of Q3 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$210 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,068 loss on $10,000 · 10.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,163 loss on $10,000 · 91.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Selecting a site is key to starting the Headwaters ARC project. It shows progress in commercialization.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a selected site for Headwaters ARC by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo site selection announcement by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition could help Aqua Metals grow. It may also strengthen its market position.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will show that the acquisition is done.
Worry ifTalks about the acquisition may end or be canceled.
Why it matters: Getting feedstock and offtake agreements is key for success. It shows market interest and readiness.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new feedstock or offtake agreements by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new agreements announced by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: These agreements are important for Aqua Metals. They help ensure a steady supply of materials.
Supportive ifAqua Metals shares final agreements for feedstock and offtake with key partners.
Worry ifNo agreements are made. This shows trouble in getting needed materials.
Why it matters: Picking a partner for Phase 1 equipment is important. It helps start operations at Headwaters ARC.
Supportive ifAqua Metals has a new partnership. They will work on Phase 1 preprocessing equipment.
Worry ifNo announcement of a Phase 1 equipment partner by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Getting these agreements is important for making money. It also helps keep operations stable.
Supportive ifThey announced final feedstock and offtake deals with important partners.
Worry ifNo agreements made or big delays in talks.
Why it matters: Securing site control is crucial for starting the Headwaters ARC project. It shows progress in commercialization.
Supportive ifThe final site control is set for the Headwaters ARC location.
Worry ifNo announcement of site control by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Choosing a partner is key to starting the first phase of the Headwaters ARC project. It impacts execution speed.
Supportive ifA partner has been named for Phase 1 preprocessing equipment.
Worry ifNo announcement of a partner selection by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Getting funding is important for the Headwaters ARC project. It affects how fast it starts.
Supportive ifFinancing agreements are in place for the Headwaters ARC project.
Worry ifNo updates on capital formation progress by the end of Q3 2026.