Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
ARM HOLDINGS LIMITED (ARM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$191.80-5.28%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.07 → 3.01 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 24 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 24 to 24; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Strength of Arm's competitive position | A supporting condition in ARM HOLDINGS LIMITED's published investment case. The stated target is maintain partnerships with at least 3 major tech firms. | Under Pressure | loses a major partnership with a tech firm | Qualitative: 1 major dispute (Qualcomm) vs 3+ partnerships target Qualcomm jury ruled in favor of Arm, but legal dispute remains a threat to partnership stability. No other major partnership losses reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ARM is a growth-oriented technology business whose valuation reflects future opportunity, or optionality, rather than a low-priced setup. The long-term thesis is currently intact, though confidence in the evidence is low and risk is high.
ARM is rated expensive, with a valuation premium versus peers and a model that has low confidence. The priced-in assessment says expectations are justified and no fragility flags fired, but valuation rose notably in the recent period, leaving limited evidence that the setup is inexpensive.
Recent financial performance is strong relative to the industry, and the thesis state says that strength remains intact despite a downward price reaction. Near-term miss risk is described as low, though industry peers have missed recently and ARM has had a deep miss in its past. The broader risk rating is high.
Over the near term, easing rates and steadier results or guidance from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop. Materially slower economic growth could weigh more heavily on growth-sensitive technology businesses. Over the multi-year view, the key question is whether ARM’s financial performance can continue to support the expectations behind its premium valuation.
The 1-3 year thesis remains intact, supported by strong recent performance, but the expensive valuation, high risk, and low confidence make execution and the technology and economic backdrop important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Profit margins of Arm Holdings |
| Arm Holdings is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI and CPU technologies. |
| Intact |
| falls below 10% profit margin next year |
Net margin: 9.01% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% profit margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20269.009009 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of Arm Holdings | Arm Holdings is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI and CPU technologies. | Intact | falls below 25% YoY revenue growth next year | Revenue growth: 27.14% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=32% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202627.136564 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.08 → $3.01 · observed estimates
$8.08B → $8.30B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.08 | $8,081,501,580 | 35 / 35 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.08 | $8,081,501,580 | 35 / 35 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.08 | $8,081,501,580 | 35 / 35 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.04 | $8,055,373,886 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.08 | $8,081,501,580 | 35 / 35 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.08 | $8,103,890,430 | 36 / 36 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.08 | $8,091,515,870 | 36 / 35 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.07 | $8,189,095,800 | 37 / 36 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.07 | $8,189,095,800 | 37 / 36 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.07 | $8,206,589,080 | 37 / 37 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.07 | $8,206,589,080 | 37 / 37 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.07 | $8,206,589,080 | 37 / 37 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.07 | $8,206,589,080 | 37 / 37 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.07 | $8,206,589,080 | 37 / 37 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.03 | $8,180,328,310 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.07 | $8,206,594,050 | 37 / 37 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.07 | $8,206,594,050 | 37 / 37 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.07 | $8,206,594,050 | 37 / 37 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.03 | $8,180,328,310 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.06 | $8,193,367,890 | 38 / 38 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.06 | $8,193,367,890 | 38 / 38 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.03 | $8,180,328,310 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.03 | $8,180,328,310 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.03 | $8,180,328,310 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.03 | $8,180,328,310 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.03 | $8,180,328,310 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.03 | $8,180,328,310 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.03 | $8,180,328,310 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.02 | $8,220,835,013 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.02 | $8,220,835,013 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.02 | $8,225,155,144 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.02 | $8,225,155,144 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.02 | $8,225,155,144 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.02 | $8,225,155,144 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.02 | $8,225,155,144 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.02 | $8,225,155,144 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.02 | $8,225,155,144 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.02 | $8,225,155,144 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.02 | $8,225,155,144 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.02 | $8,225,155,144 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.02 | $8,225,155,144 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.02 | $8,225,155,144 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.06 | $8,260,181,460 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.06 | $8,260,181,460 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.06 | $8,260,181,460 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.06 | $8,260,181,460 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.07 | $8,277,256,194 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.07 | $8,277,256,194 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.07 | $8,277,256,194 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,676 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,676 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,676 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,676 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,676 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.07 | $8,269,531,137 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.06 | $8,269,608,061 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.06 | $8,269,616,555 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.06 | $8,269,616,555 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.06 | $8,269,616,555 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.06 | $8,269,616,555 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.06 | $8,269,616,555 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.06 | $8,269,616,555 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.06 | $8,269,627,406 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.06 | $8,269,616,555 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.06 | $8,269,616,555 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.06 | $8,269,616,555 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.06 | $8,269,616,555 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.06 | $8,269,616,555 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.06 | $8,269,616,555 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.06 | $8,294,076,142 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.06 | $8,294,076,142 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.06 | $8,294,076,142 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.06 | $8,301,328,642 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.02 | $8,302,101,113 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.02 | $8,302,101,113 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.02 | $8,302,101,113 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.02 | $8,302,101,113 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.02 | $8,302,101,113 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.02 | $8,302,101,113 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.02 | $8,302,101,113 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.02 | $8,302,440,438 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.02 | $8,302,440,438 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.02 | $8,302,440,438 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.02 | $8,302,440,438 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.01 | $8,300,795,796 | 24 / 24 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 28 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.