ARM HOLDINGS LIMITED (ARM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$166.72-13.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 37.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 31.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 49 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: ARM has a strong RFP signal, while the tech sector's trend is easing. A weaker signal would remove a current strength.
Worry ifA future signal update changes ARM's RFP status from strong to neutral or weak.
Less concerning ifA future signal update keeps ARM's RFP status strong.
Why it matters: The report is the next chance to check sales growth and management's outlook. Current inputs show high risk and an expensive value signal.
Watch forARM reports sales growth above its prior level and gives an outlook that points to further growth.
Also watch forARM reports slower sales growth or gives a weaker outlook.
Why it matters: The sector is still growing, but its trend is easing. A drop below its median would mark a further slowdown.
Worry ifThe next sector update says revenue growth has dropped below its median.
Less concerning ifThe next sector update shows revenue growth at or above its median.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$307 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $827 loss on $10,000 · 8.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,206 loss on $10,000 · 62.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.