ARM HOLDINGS LIMITED (ARM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$252.09+3.92%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 37.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 31.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how ARM is performing in a slowing sector. Investors will look for revenue growth trends.
Watch forQ2 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year, indicating strong performance.
Also watch forQ2 revenue growth falls below 4% year over year, signaling weakness.
Why it matters: This report impacts overall market sentiment and can affect ARM's growth outlook.
Watch forGDP growth above 2% and corporate profits showing strong growth.
Also watch forGDP growth below 1% and corporate profits declining year over year.
Why it matters: Inflation trends can impact ARM's cost structure and pricing power in the market.
Watch forCPI growth is below 3% compared to last year. This shows inflation is easing.
Also watch forCPI growth is above 5% compared to last year. This shows inflation is rising.
Why it matters: If the sector's growth speeds up, it could boost ARM's performance and outlook.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to over 6% compared to last year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$382 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $707 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,883 loss on $10,000 · 48.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the IT sector. This could impact ARM's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median for the sector, indicating a slowdown.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median, showing continued strength in the sector.
Why it matters: PPI affects input costs for ARM. Higher costs could squeeze margins and impact earnings.
Watch forPPI growth is lower than 2% year over year, indicating stable input costs.
Also watch forPPI growth exceeds 3% year over year, signaling rising input costs.
Why it matters: The Producer Price Index affects inflation and can impact ARM's cost structure and pricing.
Watch forPPI increases by more than 0.3%, indicating rising costs.
Also watch forPPI decreases or stays flat, suggesting stable or falling costs.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choice affects interest rates. This can change market conditions for ARM.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates. This shows a tighter monetary policy.
Also watch forFOMC keeps rates the same or lowers them. This suggests a more relaxed approach.