Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$6.55-11.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARVN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -76.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -78.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 116 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARVN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 3, 2026, Arvinas, Inc. (the "Company") announced its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 and provided a corporate update. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Ex…
Why it matters: Rigel now holds global rights to VEPPANU. Its launch and sales can show whether the product gains patient use and earns royalties.
Watch forRigel reports U.S. launch progress and sales, while Arvinas reports milestone or royalty income tied to VEPPANU.
Also watch forRigel reports a launch delay or weak access. Arvinas reports no new VEPPANU milestone or royalty income.
Why it matters: Arvinas reported $567.9 million in cash at Q2 end and said it can fund plans into 2H 2028. A shorter runway could limit trial work.
Worry ifArvinas lowers its runway estimate to before the second half of 2028 or reports a need for new funding.
Less concerning ifArvinas keeps its runway estimate into the second half of 2028, with cash use in line with its operating plan.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$190 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $612 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,264 loss on $10,000 · 52.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.