Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.39+0.86%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARVN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 22.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -70.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 92.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARVN — officer change
Dated 2026-06-22
Chief Medical Officer — Noah Berkowitz, M.D., Ph.D.: Dr. Berkowitz is leaving to pursue other opportunities.
Why it matters: This partnership is key to Arvinas' growth strategy. It can signal future revenue potential.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue from the partnership exceeds $20M.
Worry ifRevenue from the partnership falls below $10M.
Why it matters: Data from this trial could validate Arvinas' approach to treating KRAS G12D mutations.
Supportive ifThe company shares early clinical data from the ARV-806 trial. The data shows positive results.
Worry ifThe data shows bad results or safety issues that hurt the trial's credibility.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal will show the commercial plan for VEPPANU and its market chance.
Supportive ifThey will announce the successful closing of the deal with Rigel Pharmaceuticals.
Worry ifNot closing the deal due to regulatory or other problems.
Why it matters: Finishing this trial and its data could prove Arvinas' method for targeting KRAS mutations. Good data may boost the company's trust.
Supportive ifCompletion of the Phase 1 trial and sharing of initial clinical data in 2026.
Worry ifTrial completion is delayed or data is disappointing.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $461 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,953 loss on $10,000 · 49.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates on this trial could show if Arvinas can advance with muscle diseases.
Watch forThe company reports positive data from the ARV-027 trial in healthy volunteers.
Also watch forThe trial faces delays or adverse events that compromise its progress.
Why it matters: Initial data could show how well ARV-6723 works against tumors resistant to current treatments. Positive results may indicate strong market potential.
Supportive ifInitial data from the Phase 1 trial in patients with advanced solid tumors will come in 2H 2026.
Worry ifNo data released or poor results from the trial.
Why it matters: Starting this trial shows that Arvinas is making progress on brain diseases.
Supportive ifThe company announces the initiation of the Phase 1b trial for ARV-102 in patients with PSP.
Worry ifThe trial starts late or is canceled because of feedback from regulators.
Why it matters: Closing the licensing deal will show that Arvinas can make money from VEPPANU. This will help fund its pipeline.
Supportive ifThe deal closes after getting all needed approvals.
Worry ifThe transaction fails to close due to regulatory or other issues.
Why it matters: This deal could help Arvinas grow and develop better.
Watch forArvinas shares big achievements or revenue growth from the deal.
Also watch forThe partnership fails to deliver expected results or revenue growth stalls.
Why it matters: Approval would show that Arvinas has a new idea. It could increase revenue.
Supportive ifThe FDA grants approval for VEPPANU for treating specific breast cancer.
Worry ifThe FDA says no to approval or asks for more data.
Why it matters: Data from this trial could show if it works for non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Good results may help investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifInitial clinical data will be shared at a medical meeting in late 2026.
Worry ifNo data shared or negative results reported from the trial.
Why it matters: Strong enrollment may show interest in this new immuno-oncology treatment. It could mean success in the market.
Supportive ifEnrollment initiated in the Phase 1 trial for ARV-6723 in patients with advanced solid tumors by Q3 2026.
Worry ifEnrollment is slow or fails to meet expectations.
Why it matters: Data from ARV-102 could show it works for Parkinson's disease. Good results may improve the company's image.
Supportive ifBiomarker data from the Phase 1 trial will be shared at the Congress on Parkinson’s Disease in October 2026.
Worry ifData presented shows no clear improvement or is unclear.