Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05

$6.55-11.73%

Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change

Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) Outlook: What's Priced In | QuarterlyIQ

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 5, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Arvinas, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARVN yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Stable leadership after recent CEO and CMO departures	A supporting condition in Arvinas, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further key executive departures through FY26.	Under Pressure	Additional key executive departures before FY27	1 key executive departure (CMO) vs 0 allowed Form 8-K filed June 22, 2026, confirms CMO Noah Berkowitz is leaving to pursue other opportunities. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-3.24

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Stable leadership after recent CEO and CMO departuresPublished status: Under Pressure
Commercial success of FDA-approved VEPPANU drugRevenue: $500,000
Revenue growth from Rigel Pharmaceuticals partnershipRevenue growth: -98.81%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-52.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Arvinas, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ARVN is a high-risk clinical-stage biotechnology company with commercialization optionality, meaning future value depends in part on outcomes that are not yet assured. The long-term thesis is intact, though the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.

What's priced into Arvinas, Inc.

The evidence suggests ARVN trades at a premium to peers, with valuation supported by expectations for future opportunities rather than established earnings. The expectations gap is modest, but model confidence is low, so the valuation picture is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent financial performance is strong, helped by VEPPANU approval and licensing, which contributed to a sharp increase in quarterly revenue. ARVN remains loss-making, cash has declined, and management says it can fund operations into the second half of 2028. Erratic earnings surprises and a high-miss-rate industry make the next report a meaningful risk.

What Arvinas, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on VEPPANU commercialization, clinical progress across the early-stage pipeline, and management preserving the stated cash runway. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could weigh on the business outlook, while strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.

Bottom line

ARVN’s operating progress supports an intact long-term thesis, but losses, clinical uncertainty, and sensitivity to near-term guidance keep risk elevated. Not investment advice.

Development preview · refreshed Nov 6, 2026Open Living FV detail

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-07-25	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-07-26	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-07-27	$-3.44	$74,107,666	10 / 10
2026-07-28	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-07-29	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-07-30	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-07-31	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-08-01	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-08-02	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-08-03	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-08-04	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-08-05	$-3.33	$72,400,970	12 / 14
2026-08-06	$-3.25	$83,603,410	11 / 11
2026-08-07	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 9
2026-08-08	$-3.26	$68,079,540	11 / 14
2026-08-09	$-3.26	$68,079,540	11 / 14
2026-08-10	$-3.26	$68,079,540	11 / 14
2026-08-11	$-3.26	$68,079,540	11 / 14
2026-08-12	$-3.12	$67,894,340	11 / 13
2026-08-13	$-3.12	$67,894,340	11 / 13
2026-08-14	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 9
2026-08-15	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 10
2026-08-16	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 10
2026-08-17	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 10
2026-08-18	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 10
2026-08-19	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 10
2026-08-20	$-3.38	$68,261,512	10 / 10
2026-08-21	$-3.46	$51,650,305	10 / 10
2026-08-22	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-23	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-24	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-25	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-26	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-27	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-28	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-29	$-3.31	$61,546,435	10 / 10
2026-08-30	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-08-31	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-01	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-02	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-03	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-04	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-05	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-06	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-07	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-08	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-09	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-10	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-11	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-12	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-13	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-14	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-15	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-16	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-17	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-18	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-19	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-20	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-21	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-22	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-23	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-24	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-25	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-26	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-27	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-28	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-29	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-09-30	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-01	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-02	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-03	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-04	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-05	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-06	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-07	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-08	$-3.32	$63,084,061	10 / 10
2026-10-09	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-10	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-11	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-12	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-13	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-14	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-15	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-16	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-17	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-18	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-19	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-20	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-21	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-22	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-23	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-24	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-25	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-26	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-27	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-28	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-29	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-30	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-10-31	$-3.32	$63,084,054	10 / 10
2026-11-01	$-3.26	$67,589,981	10 / 10
2026-11-02	$-3.26	$67,589,981	10 / 10
2026-11-03	$-3.26	$67,589,981	10 / 10
2026-11-04	$-3.24	$47,648,373	10 / 10
2026-11-05	$-3.24	$47,648,373	10 / 10

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-06-01	10	8	1
2026-07-01	9	7	1
2026-08-01	8	8	1
2026-09-01	7	8	1
2026-10-01	7	8	1
2026-11-01	7	8	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded

What could strengthen or challenge Arvinas, Inc.’s outlook?

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

What the Thesis Depends On

Incoming Evidence

Expectations trend

Outlook in Brief

What's improving

Still unresolved / key risks

Next proof point

Historical risk context

Arvinas, Inc. outlook in detail

What kind of bet this is

What's priced into Arvinas, Inc.

What the fundamentals likely do

What Arvinas, Inc. hinges on

Bottom line

Analyst view

Price-target changes

Bottom line