Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$86.34-0.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ARWR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -45.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ARWR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 4, 2026, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. announced and commented on its fiscal 2026 financial results for the period ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amende…
Why it matters: A positive decision would grow REDEMPLO's market. This could increase revenue and boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe European Commission will approve marketing for REDEMPLO by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe European Commission will not allow REDEMPLO to be sold.
Why it matters: A big drop in cash resources may show financial trouble and affect operations.
Worry ifTotal cash resources fall below $1 billion.
Less concerning ifTotal cash resources stay above $1 billion. This shows financial stability.
Why it matters: Good results could show that plozasiran works for triglyceride problems. This helps Arrowhead grow.
Supportive ifTop results show a big drop in triglycerides. Safety data was shared at the ESC Congress on August 30, 2026.
Worry ifResults do not show a big drop in triglycerides. There are no safety worries.
Why it matters: Using the PRV could speed up approval for plozasiran's new use, boosting market chances.
Supportive ifThe FDA gives priority review for plozasiran's sNDA. A decision will come in 6 months.
Worry ifFDA does not grant priority review or delays the decision beyond 6 months.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$193 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $531 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,464 loss on $10,000 · 24.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More prescriptions show strong market acceptance and success for REDEMPLO.
Supportive ifREDEMPLO prescriptions continue to grow, reaching over 800 by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifIf prescription volume stays the same or drops, it suggests market challenges.
Why it matters: A good FDA decision could increase plozasiran's uses and raise revenue.
Supportive ifFDA grants approval for the sNDA submission for plozasiran before the end of 2026.
Worry ifFDA denies or delays the sNDA submission for plozasiran.
Why it matters: Good results could prove Arrowhead's RNAi platform. It may also grow its pipeline.
Watch forInterim data shows strong results in lowering PCSK9 and APOC3 levels.
Also watch forInterim data shows no big change in target gene expression.
Why it matters: Having strong cash helps keep R&D going and supports stability.
Supportive ifTotal cash stays above $1.5 billion for two straight quarters.
Worry ifTotal cash resources drop below $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: Progress in this trial could validate Arrowhead's RNAi pipeline and lead to new revenue streams.
Supportive ifThe YOSEMITE trial will finish with positive results reported in mid-2027.
Worry ifTrial results are negative or delayed, raising concerns about the RNAi pipeline.