Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$57.46-6.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ARWR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
REDEMPLO revenue stabilizes or grows | The company aims to strengthen commercial presence for REDEMPLO despite revenue falling to $73.7M in Q2 2026. | Improving | quarterly REDEMPLO revenue falls below $70M next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 24, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not a proven earnings compounder, because it remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: commercial progress and pipeline execution are positive, while recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.
The valuation model shows a durable premium of 1.37 times versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative at 0.29, suggesting expectations sit above the model’s implied view. The priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, but confidence in the valuation read is medium.
Near-term results may remain uneven: ARWR had an earnings miss in August after a beat in May, and the snapshot notes erratic earnings surprises in a high-miss-rate industry. Over the multi-year view, REDEMPLO prescriptions and market access have expanded, the pipeline has advanced, and cash resources rose to $1.57 billion by 2026-Q2. Management priorities are mostly on track, though commercial progress is rated mixed.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued REDEMPLO growth, pipeline progress, and disciplined use of the strengthened cash position. Near term, weaker employment data could increase recession concerns, while results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers such as VRTX, REGN, and MRNA could either support or weaken the sector tailwind.
ARWR has meaningful commercial and pipeline progress, but losses, uneven results, and a valuation premium make execution the central issue for the 1-3 year view. The evidence supports continued monitoring of the thesis rather than a clear fundamental confirmation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Key progress included: ◦ REDEMPLO prescription volume roughly doubled during the fiscal third quarter.” “• Announced marketing authorizations of REDEMPLO in two new territories: ◦ The European Commission (EC) formally granted marketing authorization for REDEMPLO as an adjunct to diet to reduce triglyceride levels in adult patients with FCS.”
EPS loss narrows from current levels | A primary condition in Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss improves to better than -$0.80 next 4 quarters. | Broken | EPS loss worsens beyond -$1.0 next 4 quarters | Diluted EPS: $-1.36 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss improves to better than -$0.80 next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 2026-1.36 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Management maintains stable execution and hires support growth | Recent positive hires and stable management support recovery. | Intact | Major management departures or negative leadership news | No major departures; 1 positive board addition No major departures. New director appointed. Positive pipeline updates and buyback announced. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.95 → $-2.81 · observed estimates
$0.74B → $0.67B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.95 | $737,296,843 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.95 | $737,296,843 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.95 | $737,296,843 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.95 | $737,296,843 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.95 | $737,296,843 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.95 | $737,296,843 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.95 | $737,296,843 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.95 | $737,296,843 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.95 | $737,296,843 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.95 | $737,296,843 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.95 | $737,296,843 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.95 | $737,296,843 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.95 | $737,296,843 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.95 | $737,296,843 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.95 | $737,296,843 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.81 | $666,067,159 | 8 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.