Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Academy Sports + Outdoors (ASO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$67.81+0.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.07 → 7.10 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ASO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Execute share buyback program | A supporting condition in Academy Sports + Outdoors's published investment case. The stated target is Progress on buyback program execution. | Intact | No meaningful buyback activity in FY26 | Buyback funded by $500M notes ASO issued $500M senior secured notes in May 2026 to fund share repurchases, demonstrating active capital allocation. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ASO is a value-oriented retailer with growth from store expansion and eCommerce, rather than a high-growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact: recent performance is strong and management is delivering on several priorities, but confidence has eased to medium.
The evidence describes ASO as cheap versus peers, while also indicating that the valuation reflects justified expectations and has low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, but the snapshot does not explain its size in plain terms, so the market’s exact assumptions are unclear.
Near-term results have been strong, including earnings beats in June and September, and eCommerce sales grew in both reported quarters. Store expansion is mixed against the 20-to-25-store fiscal 2026 priority, while share repurchases are on track; recent guidance raises the stakes if management later reverses course.
Over the next few quarters, a guidance cut after the recent raise could weaken confidence in management’s execution. The broader Consumer Discretionary backdrop may also depend on whether sector bellwethers continue to report strong results and raise guidance. Over the multi-year view, delivery on store growth and continued eCommerce expansion remain important.
ASO’s multi-year thesis is intact, with strong recent fundamentals and a cheap peer-relative valuation, but medium confidence reflects execution and sector risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “At the end of fiscal 2025 the Company had approximately $437 million remaining on its current share repurchase authorization.” “The earnings per share estimates do not include any potential future share repurchases and assume a tax rate of 22.0% to 23.0%.”
EPS about $6.15 in fiscal 2027 | The company raised full-year EPS guidance to about $6.15 per share. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $5.95 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $2.17 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$6.15 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 9, 20262.17 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Free cash flow near $275 million in fiscal 2027 | Free cash flow is expected near $275 million in fiscal 2027. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $250 million in FY27 | Free cash flow: $116.061M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$275M FCF. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 9, 2026116,061,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin near 34.4% in fiscal 2026 | Free cash flow is expected near $275 million in fiscal 2027. | Under Pressure | Gross margin falls below 33% in FY26 | Gross margin: 40.42% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 34.4% gross margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 9, 202640.424213 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In fiscal 2026, the Company plans to open 20-25 new stores.” “The Company plans to open eleven stores during the third quarter, with the remaining locations to be opened in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue growth of about $6.28 billion in fiscal 2027 | A primary condition in Academy Sports + Outdoors's published investment case. The stated target is ~$6.28B revenue. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $6.0 billion in FY27 | Revenue: $1.647B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$6.28B revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 9, 20261,647,285,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In fiscal 2026, the Company plans to open 20-25 new stores.” “The Company plans to open eleven stores during the third quarter, with the remaining locations to be opened in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.00 → $7.10 · observed estimates
$6.64B → $6.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.00 | $6,639,544,400 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.98 | $6,639,598,410 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.98 | $6,641,522,293 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.98 | $6,641,522,293 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.98 | $6,641,522,293 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.98 | $6,641,522,293 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.96 | $6,641,522,293 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.96 | $6,641,522,293 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.96 | $6,641,522,293 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.96 | $6,641,522,293 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.96 | $6,641,522,293 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.96 | $6,641,522,293 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.96 | $6,641,522,293 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.96 | $6,641,522,293 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.96 | $6,641,522,293 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.92 | $6,621,738,197 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.92 | $6,621,738,197 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.92 | $6,621,738,197 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.92 | $6,621,738,197 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.92 | $6,621,738,197 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.92 | $6,621,738,197 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.91 | $6,606,233,475 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.00 | $6,596,916,036 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.07 | $6,609,612,643 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.07 | $6,609,612,643 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.07 | $6,609,612,643 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.07 | $6,609,612,643 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.07 | $6,609,612,643 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.07 | $6,609,612,643 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.06 | $6,609,713,853 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.06 | $6,609,713,853 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.06 | $6,609,713,853 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.06 | $6,609,713,853 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.06 | $6,609,713,853 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.06 | $6,609,713,853 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.06 | $6,609,713,853 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.06 | $6,609,713,853 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.06 | $6,609,713,853 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.06 | $6,609,713,853 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.06 | $6,609,713,853 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.06 | $6,609,713,853 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.06 | $6,609,713,853 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.07 | $6,610,460,772 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.07 | $6,610,467,546 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.07 | $6,610,467,546 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.07 | $6,610,467,546 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.07 | $6,610,467,546 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.07 | $6,610,467,546 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.07 | $6,610,467,546 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.07 | $6,610,446,494 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.07 | $6,610,446,494 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.07 | $6,610,446,494 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.07 | $6,610,446,494 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.05 | $6,609,635,967 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.05 | $6,609,635,967 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.05 | $6,609,651,757 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.05 | $6,609,651,757 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.05 | $6,609,651,757 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.05 | $6,609,651,757 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.05 | $6,609,651,757 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.05 | $6,609,651,757 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.05 | $6,609,651,757 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.05 | $6,609,651,757 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.08 | $6,612,498,162 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.06 | $6,614,444,627 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.06 | $6,614,444,627 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.10 | $6,617,734,246 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.10 | $6,617,734,246 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.10 | $6,617,734,246 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.10 | $6,617,734,246 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.10 | $6,617,727,813 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.10 | $6,617,727,813 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.10 | $6,617,727,813 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.10 | $6,617,727,813 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.10 | $6,617,727,813 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.10 | $6,617,727,813 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.10 | $6,617,727,813 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.10 | $6,617,727,813 | 10 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 8, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.