Academy Sports + Outdoors (ASO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$67.81+0.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
ASO — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-05-14
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Why it matters: Academy raised its low-end adjusted EPS view to $6.50, while keeping its sales range unchanged. A miss would weaken that earnings progress.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EPS is below $6.50.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EPS is at or above $6.50.
Why it matters: Academy raised its full-year cash flow range to $300 million to $350 million. A result below its low end would challenge that view.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 adjusted free cash flow is below $300 million.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2026 adjusted free cash flow is at or above $300 million.
Why it matters: Academy plans 20 to 25 new stores this year. It had 327 stores after Q2 and planned 11 openings in Q3.
Supportive ifAcademy plans 20 to 25 store openings in fiscal 2026.
Worry ifAcademy plans fewer than 20 store openings in fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Q2 comparable sales fell 0.4% after rising 2.9% in Q1. Another drop would point to weaker store demand.
Worry ifQ3 comparable sales are below 0% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 comparable sales are at or above 0% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$160 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $396 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,013 loss on $10,000 · 30.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Online sales grew 12.8% in Q2. Growth above 10% would keep a key growth effort on track.
Supportive ifQ3 eCommerce sales grow more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 eCommerce sales growth is 10% or less year over year.