Academy Sports + Outdoors (ASO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$44.94+2.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 45 industry peers
ASO — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-05-14
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Why it matters: Opening new stores is key to Academy's growth strategy. It shows demand and expansion.
Supportive ifAcademy opens three new stores in Q2 2026 as planned.
Worry ifAcademy fails to open the planned three new stores in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: New store openings are key to growth and reaching the target of 20-25 new stores this year.
Supportive ifThree new stores opened in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFewer than three new stores opened in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Inflation affects how much customers spend. This can impact sales and profits.
Worry ifConsumer spending is going down because of inflation.
Less concerning ifConsumer spending is going up even with inflation.
Why it matters: Changes in guidance show what management thinks about spending and business health.
Watch forManagement raises the fiscal 2026 guidance after the Q2 results came in.
Also watch forManagement lowers the fiscal 2026 guidance after the Q2 results came in.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$169 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $405 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,013 loss on $10,000 · 30.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This will show if the momentum from Q1 continues or if demand is weakening.
Worry ifQ2 sales growth was less than 2.0%.
Less concerning ifQ2 sales growth was more than 2.0%.
Why it matters: New store openings are key for growth and show execution of expansion plans.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new store openings that total at least 15 for the second half of 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 15 new store openings announced for the second half of 2026.
Why it matters: Slower eCommerce growth may show problems with the digital strategy.
Worry ifeCommerce sales growth reported below 15% for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifeCommerce sales growth reported above 15% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A buyback could signal confidence in the company's financial health and support share price.
Supportive ifThey announced a share buyback program or started buying back shares.
Worry ifNo announcement or execution of share buybacks in the next quarter.