Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ATN International, Inc. (ATNI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$26.59+3.10%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.08 → 1.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ATNI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payments near $0.28 per share | The company keeps paying dividends at $0.28 per share. | Intact | dividend falls below $0.25 per share next year | Dividend per share: $0.29 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.28 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 20260.29 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk, value-oriented communications business rather than a proven earnings compounder, since it is currently loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance holding in the top half of its industry, but the evidence carries medium confidence.
ATNI is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning the market’s expectations appear more cautious than the model’s view. Model confidence is low, so that valuation signal is uncertain; priced-in fragility is low, with no fragility gates triggered.
Near-term results face elevated risk: ATNI missed its most recent quarter, has had erratic earnings surprises, and the stated chance of a next-quarter miss is elevated. Management reaffirmed guidance in August, has kept capital spending aligned with its stated discipline, and increased the dividend, while a recent rise in company quality offers a positive sign; completing strategic acquisitions remains a watch item.
A guidance cut on the next call would weaken the thesis, especially given the pattern of estimates being revised down after cuts. The multi-year view also depends on completing strategic acquisitions and sustaining disciplined spending, while rate cuts or stronger results and guidance from sector peers could improve the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ATNI’s thesis rests on maintaining recent operating strength and executing its priorities despite losses, elevated earnings risk, and sector headwinds. The valuation looks cheap versus peers, but confidence in that signal is low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Quarterly Dividends and Share Repurchases On July 8, 2026, the Company paid a quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share, on all shares of common stock outstanding to stockholders of record as of June 30, 2026.” “The cash dividend represented a 5.5% increase from the previous quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share.”
Operating income improves to at least $11.69 million | ATN is improving its operating income, up from $2.67M to $11.69M. | Broken | operating income falls below $11 million next year | Operating income: $239.732M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $11.69 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 2026239,732,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA 1 was $49.7 million, up $4.0 million, or 9%, from $45.8 million in the year-ago quarter and Adjusted EBITDA Margin 1 expanded to 27.0% from 25.3%.” “Mr. Doglioli added, “We continue to benefit from our cost containment initiatives, which, combined with top-line growth, supported improved profitability and margin expansion during the quarter.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue stabilizes near $725 million | A primary condition in ATN International, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $725 million. | Broken | revenue falls below $700 million in FY26 | Revenue: $184.504M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $725 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026184,504,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.09 → $1.08 · observed estimates
$0.74B → $0.75B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.09 | $741,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.09 | $741,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.09 | $741,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.09 | $741,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.09 | $741,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.09 | $741,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.09 | $741,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.09 | $741,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.09 | $741,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.09 | $741,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.09 | $741,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.09 | $741,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.09 | $741,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.09 | $741,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.08 | $751,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.