ATN International, Inc. (ATNI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$30.93-0.45%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ATNI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ATNI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, ATN International, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Exhibit 99.1 is furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, n…
Why it matters: Hitting the new guidance will show management can adapt after the tower sale.
Supportive ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA falls within the revised range of $183 million to $193 million.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $183 million.
Why it matters: Keeping dividend payments shows good financial health. This can influence how investors feel.
Supportive ifThe dividend payment is confirmed at $0.275 per share.
Worry ifThere is news of a dividend cut or pause.
Why it matters: Progress on acquisitions could mean growth and a better market position.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new acquisition that fits with growth plans.
Worry ifNo news on acquisitions or plans in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It shows commitment to shareholders after the tower sale.
Supportive ifThe company continues to pay a dividend of $0.275 per share.
Worry ifThe company cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$130 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $388 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,279 loss on $10,000 · 22.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable or growing revenue shows the business is strong after the tower sale.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth improves or stays above 2% from last year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth drops below 2% from last year. This shows possible problems.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show that management trusts cash flow and profits.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend increase beyond the current $0.29 per share.
Worry ifThe company keeps or lowers the dividend. This shows possible cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Customer growth trends can show demand for services. They also show future revenue potential.
Watch forHigh-speed broadband customer growth is over 3% compared to last year.
Also watch forHigh-speed broadband customer growth drops below 1% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Good acquisitions can help growth and market position. This is a key goal for management.
Supportive ifA completed acquisition that adds a lot of revenue or market share.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced within the next quarter.
Why it matters: More acquisitions would show the company is growing and expanding its market reach.
Supportive ifLook for at least one new acquisition that brings in more assets or money.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The sale will lower revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. This will test if management can cover losses.
Worry ifQ3 revenue decreases by more than $3 million due to the tower sale.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue remains stable or increases despite the tower sale.
Why it matters: The company may receive up to $30 million in cash from the tower sale. This would enhance liquidity and support future investments.
Supportive ifThe company gets more cash from the US Tower Portfolio Sale. This is beyond the first $268 million.
Worry ifNo additional cash is received from the tower sale within the next 12 months.
Why it matters: Completing strategic acquisitions is a top priority. Success here could drive growth and improve market position.
Supportive ifA new acquisition will help ATNI reach more customers.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced within the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows financial strength. It shows a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifWatch for news about dividend payments. Also, look for any increases in dividends.
Worry ifNews about dividend cuts or stops.
Why it matters: Cash from the tower sale can help with liquidity. It can also support growth plans.
Supportive ifCompletion of subsequent closings that yield cash proceeds of up to $30 million.
Worry ifNo more closings happen in the next twelve months. Or proceeds are much lower than expected.
Why it matters: A drop in Adjusted EBITDA may show problems in operations. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $45 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is more than $45 million.
Why it matters: Better operating income means lower costs. This helps management's goals and boosts investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $11.69 million for Q2.
Worry ifOperating income was below $11.69 million for Q2.
Why it matters: Naji Khoury may bring new plans. These could help performance and boost investor trust.
Supportive ifNew plans announced for growth and better operations.
Worry ifNo new plans or unclear future strategy.
Why it matters: Extra cash from the tower sale can help with money flow and growth.
Supportive ifLater closings bring in cash over $30 million as expected.
Worry ifNo additional cash proceeds from subsequent closings occur within the next twelve months.