Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Aura Biosciences, Inc. (AURA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.34-4.66%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AURA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete CoMpass trial enrollment by mid-2026 | Aura aims to finish CoMpass trial enrollment by mid-2026. | Intact | Enrollment not completed by mid-2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Recent Business Highlights Early Choroidal Melanoma The Phase 3 CoMpass trial, the first registration-enabling study in patients with early choroidal melanoma, is fully enrolled with 108 patients, which exceeded the enrollment target.” “Topline data from the 15-month primary endpoint remain on track for the second half of 2027, consistent with previously communicated guidance.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AURA is a speculative, clinical-stage healthcare business, with its multi-year view tied to the CoMpass trial. The thesis is in a watch state: enrollment is complete ahead of target, but financial performance is weak, earnings quality is loss-making, and confidence in the evidence is low.
The evidence snapshot provides no valuation measures or estimate of market expectations, so whether AURA is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. The recent muted price reaction does not establish what the market expects from future results.
Near term, performance is vulnerable: AURA recently missed earnings, and the stated risk of missing estimates is elevated. Management completed CoMpass enrollment with 108 patients by the second quarter of 2026 and continues to expect topline data in the second half of 2027, while its new decision to deprioritize the NMIBC program is still unproven.
The multi-year thesis hinges on delivering CoMpass results on the stated timeline and on whether the focus on ocular oncology improves execution. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from healthcare peers could support sector momentum; weakening jobs data may increase recession concerns for cyclical names.
For the next 1 to 3 years, AURA remains a high-risk, evidence-limited thesis with one clear execution milestone completed and the main clinical readout still ahead. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Topline data from CoMpass trial in second half 2027 | It plans topline data from the trial in late 2027. | Intact | Topline data delayed beyond H2 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improving earnings towards less negative EPS | A supporting condition in Aura Biosciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrowing from -1.59 in FY26 to less negative in FY27. | Intact | EPS loss worsens or stays flat beyond FY27 | Diluted EPS: $-0.48 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrowing from -1.59 in FY26 to less negative in FY27. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 11, 2026-0.48 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Executing announced share buyback programs | A supporting condition in Aura Biosciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Buyback programs executed as announced in 2026. | Intact | Buyback programs not executed or canceled | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.67 → $-1.52 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.62 | $7,718,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.67 | $7,718,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.52 | $4,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.