AvalonBay Communities (AVB)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-07-07
$195.49+0.59%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $195.49. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $195 AVB trades at 13× p/ffo, below its 16× p/ffo peer median, but our blended $156 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $187–$209. Note: our $156 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($187–$209). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $211 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $196.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $130.75 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $96.18 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $76.23 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$187.00 – $209.00 (median $196.50) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-06-16
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $94.59 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $99.83 | 16.2 | 6.17 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $195.69 | 21.5 | 9.10 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M | $238.35 | 16.2 | 14.73 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $172.76 | 7.9 | 21.77 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $73.48 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $167.61 | 33.9 | 4.94 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $79.78 | 16.2 | 4.93 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $103.75 | 16.2 | 6.41 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $193.33 | 21.5 | 8.99 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 3Y | $268.84 | 16.2 | 16.62 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $191.64 | 7.9 | 24.15 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $20.58 | 2.5 | 8.07 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $273.93 | 33.9 | 8.07 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $106.45 | 16.2 | 6.58 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $191.76 | 21.5 | 8.92 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 5Y | $291.30 | 16.2 | 18.00 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $205.05 | 7.9 | 25.84 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $22.02 | 2.5 | 8.64 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $293.10 | 33.9 | 8.64 | Analyst | high |