AvalonBay Communities (AVB)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
$68.14+2.02%
Close 2026-08-24 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVB
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $68 AVB trades at 4.7× p/ffo, below its 13× p/ffo peer median. Our $148 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well below the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $187–$210. Note: our $148 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($187–$210). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $198.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $196.78 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $193.89 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $68.59 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$187.00 – $210.00 (median $198.00) · 15 analysts · as of 2026-07-23
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $111.95 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $79.84 | 12.9 | 6.17 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $139.82 | 15.6 | 8.95 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M | $188.06 | 12.9 | 14.53 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $83.14 | 3.8 | 21.73 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $83.18 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $196.35 | 30.6 | 6.43 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $85.07 | 12.9 | 6.57 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $52.39 | 12.9 | 4.05 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $132.73 | 15.6 | 8.50 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $93.19 | 3.8 | 24.36 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $211.85 | 30.6 | 6.93 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $39.56 | 12.9 | 3.06 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $128.20 | 15.6 | 8.21 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $100.54 | 3.8 | 26.28 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $228.58 | 30.6 | 7.48 | Analyst | high |