AvalonBay Communities (AVB)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-05
$68.14+2.02%
Close 2026-08-24 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -53.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 57.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AVB — legal / regulatory event
Dated 2026-08-17
by reference. On the Closing Date, AvalonBay notified the NYSE of the completion of the Merger and requested that the trading of shares of AvalonBay Common Stock on the NYSE be halted prior to the market open on August 17, 2026. As a result, all shares of AvalonBay Common Stock were removed from trading on the NYSE prior to the market open on August 17, 2026. The NYSE has filed with the SEC a Notification of Removal From Listing and/or Registration on Form 25 in order to delist the AvalonBay…
Why it matters: The sector note says real estate growth is slowing, with margins near 3% lower year over year. Faster revenue growth would signal a turn.
Supportive ifThe next sector update shows revenue growth moving back toward its prior highs and margins no longer down about 3% year over year.
Worry ifThe next sector update shows revenue growth still slowing and margins down about 3% year over year or worse.
Why it matters: Q2 NOI grew 1.0% year over year. A higher Q3 rate would show that rent growth and cost control remain strong.
Supportive ifQ3 same-store residential NOI growth is above 1.0% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 same-store residential NOI growth is below 1.0% year over year.
Why it matters: The merger announcement set an initial annual dividend of $2.81 per share. The first declared rate will show whether the plan holds.
Supportive ifThe combined company declares a yearly dividend of at least $2.81 per share.
Worry ifThe combined company declares a yearly dividend of less than $2.81 per share.
Why it matters: AVB delisted after the merger closed on August 17. The first full-quarter report can show how the new company performs as one business.
Watch forThe combined company reports same-store NOI growth above 1.0% year over year in its first full quarter.
Also watch forThe combined company reports same-store NOI growth below 1.0% year over year in its first full quarter.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $233 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,629 loss on $10,000 · 66.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.