Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Avidia Bancorp Inc (AVBC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.61-1.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.48 → 1.53 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AVBC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities near $8.38 million | These show steady profits and good cash flow. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $8 million next quarter | Cash from operations: $0 FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.38 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 23, 20260 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an improving financial business with a developing profitability story, rather than a proven durable compounder, since the evidence still classifies earnings quality as loss-making. The multi-year view is intact, with stable management and recent results showing progress, but company momentum has weakened.
AVBC is valued cheaply versus peers, and the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The evidence labels the valuation justified and fragility low, so it does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near-term results have been strong: net income rose for three consecutive quarters, while revenue increased and the efficiency ratio improved from the first to the third quarter. Management has followed through on capital-return actions, but the loss-making earnings-quality label and a recent deep miss history remain risks; the estimated near-term miss probability is low.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued earnings growth and operating discipline translating into durable profitability. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while falling rates could weigh on the financial sector; continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.
For the next one to three years, AVBC shows credible operating and earnings progress with a valuation below peers, but weakening company momentum and its loss-making earnings-quality profile keep execution central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Avidia Bancorp keeps paying a $0.05 dividend per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend falls below $0.05 per share next quarter |
Dividend per share: $0.05 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.05 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 20260.05 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income near $6 million | Net income rose to about $6 million in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Net income falls below $6 million next quarter | Net income: $8.601M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $6 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 23, 20268,601,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.41 → $1.53 · observed estimates
Unavailable → $0.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.41 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.48 | $122,180,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.48 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.48 | $125,280,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.51 | $126,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.51 | $126,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.51 | $126,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.51 | $126,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.53 | $126,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.53 | $126,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.53 | $126,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.53 | $126,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.53 | $126,200,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.