Avidia Bancorp Inc (AVBC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.09+0.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVBC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
AVBC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”), the holding company of Avidia Bank, issued a press release announcing the unaudited consolidated financial results of the Company for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: The efficiency ratio shows how well Avidia manages costs. A better ratio helps management's plans.
Supportive ifEfficiency ratio drops to below 65.3% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio worsens to above 67.2% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for Avidia Bancorp.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median level.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median level.
Why it matters: A big drop in loans may show weak demand or credit problems.
Worry ifTotal loans decrease by more than 2% from $2.26 billion in Q2.
Less concerning ifTotal loans remain stable or grow compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Keeping the $0.05 dividend shows good money management. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifAvidia Bancorp will pay a $0.05 dividend next quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$83 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $215 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,190 loss on $10,000 · 11.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A $0.05 dividend shows good money management. It helps investors feel secure.
Supportive ifDividend remains at $0.05 per share for Q2 2026.
Worry ifDividend is cut below $0.05 per share.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can show management's trust in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifThere are public announcements of share buybacks under the $30 million plan.
Worry ifNo share buybacks in the next quarter may show caution.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may signal a broader sector issue. This affects overall performance.
Worry ifAvidia's revenue growth falls below the sector median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the sector median.
Why it matters: Growing net income shows good financial health and strong management.
Supportive ifQ3 net income exceeds $6.6 million, which is a 10% increase from Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 net income is under $6.6 million. This shows stagnation or decline.
Why it matters: A better net interest margin means more profit from loans and deposits. It shows management is good at handling interest rates.
Supportive ifNet interest margin increases beyond 3.61% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.54%.
Why it matters: More cash from operations means better liquidity. This helps keep stability.
Supportive ifCash from operations goes over $8 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $5 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The dividend shows Avidia's promise to give value to shareholders. A good payment shows financial health.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid on time and remains at $0.06 per share.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or reduced from $0.06 per share.
Why it matters: A buyback can signal management's confidence in the stock and improve earnings per share. This can positively impact share price.
Supportive ifAvidia has finished the $30 million stock buyback plan.
Worry ifNo major buyback activity is seen during the planned time.
Why it matters: Strong growth in non-interest income shows good variety and revenue for the company.
Supportive ifNon-interest income exceeds $6.5 million, a 10% increase from Q2.
Worry ifNon-interest income is below $6.5 million. This shows revenue challenges.
Why it matters: The buyback could signal management's confidence in the stock. It may also affect share price and earnings per share.
Supportive ifShare price rises by more than 5% following the buyback announcement.
Worry ifShare price declines or remains flat despite the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends show how management feels about cash flow. A rise means strong financial health.
Supportive ifQuarterly cash dividend increases beyond $0.06 per share.
Worry ifQuarterly cash dividend stays at $0.06 or goes down.