Avidia Bancorp Inc (AVBC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.61-1.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVBC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AVBC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”), the holding company of Avidia Bank, issued a press release announcing the unaudited consolidated financial results of the Company for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Q3 margin was 3.86%, but a loan prepayment added 11 basis points. A margin above 3.75% would show gains beyond that one-time fee.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin is above 3.75%, excluding any large loan prepayment fee.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin is 3.75% or lower, with no large loan prepayment fee.
Why it matters: Nonaccruing loans rose to 0.79% of loans in Q3, from 0.60% in Q1. A rise above 1% would show further credit stress.
Worry ifNonaccruing loans exceed 1.00% of total loans in a later quarterly report.
Less concerning ifNonaccruing loans fall below 0.75% of total loans in a later quarterly report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$67 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $217 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,190 loss on $10,000 · 11.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.