NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AVD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations improves from negative $35.4M | The company plans to improve cash flow from operations. | Broken | Cash from operations remains negative beyond 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations: $-25.018M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: improve from negative $35.4M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026-25,018,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Comparable estimate history is unavailable.
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Compare required revenue and earningsMonthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative turnaround, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: performance remains below its industry cohort, though it has not freshly broken, and the overall signal recently shifted from cautious to mixed.
The valuation model points to AVD as cheap versus peers, but confidence in that assessment is low. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment is tagged justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not show a clear mismatch between expectations and the business outlook.
Near term, management has reaffirmed 2026 sales guidance of $530 million to $550 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $44 million to $48 million, while ongoing operating losses and consecutive earnings misses leave execution uncertain. Financial discipline and debt restructuring are priorities to watch, and the CFO transition adds a management change at a pivotal time.
The next call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut would add to concern, while continued reaffirmation would preserve the current outlook. Over the multi-year view, the sector backdrop matters too: continued strength from CF, CTVA, and MOS could sustain a Materials tailwind, while misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.
Over the next one to three years, AVD’s thesis depends on turning reaffirmed guidance into better financial performance while managing elevated earnings risk. The low-confidence peer valuation signal does not offset the evidence of losses and execution challenges. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It targets stabilizing gross profit near $38 million. |
| Improving |
| Gross profit falls below $38 million next year |
Gross profit: $34.713M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $38 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 202634,713,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $540 million in 2026 | American Vanguard aims to grow revenue to about $540 million in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $520 million in FY26 | Revenue: $116.754M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$540 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026116,754,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.