American Vanguard Corp. (AVD)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.95-2.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -89.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 90.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
AVD — CFO transition
Dated 2026-10-01
CFO — Matthew Horwath: The filing discloses the external hire of a new CFO and the internal transition of the former CFO to a non-executive role, which is a standard succession event rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: The debt plan is tied to the company's wider change effort. Lower debt costs would give it more room to improve cash flow.
Supportive ifA company filing lists the new debt terms and shows lower interest costs or more time to repay.
Worry ifA filing shows the debt plan was delayed, canceled, or came with higher interest costs.
Why it matters: The company has ongoing operating losses. Positive cash from operations would show that its cash flow is improving.
Supportive ifCash from operations is above zero for a reported quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations stays below zero in the next two reported quarters.
Why it matters: Horwath named financial discipline and capital allocation as priorities. A clear plan would show how the new CFO will act on them.
Supportive ifHorwath gives a specific plan with dated steps for capital spending, debt, or cash use.
Worry ifBy the next two earnings calls, Horwath gives no specific steps for capital spending, debt, or cash use.
Why it matters: The sector has been shrinking, but recent data hints that it may be changing. Positive growth would support a better sector backdrop for AVD.
Supportive ifThe sector's reported three-year revenue growth turns above 0%.
Worry ifThe sector's reported three-year revenue growth stays below 0%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$258 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $710 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,196 loss on $10,000 · 82.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.