American Vanguard Corp. (AVD)
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.33+1.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -80.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 81.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AVD — director transition
Dated 2026-04-15
Director — Scott Baskin, Emer Gunter and Carmen Tiu de Mino: Three directors decided not to stand for re-election due to the reduction in board size.
Why it matters: Restructuring debt is very important. Success can make the finances more stable.
Supportive ifManagement says total debt is much lower or the terms on debt are better.
Worry ifNo progress on debt restructuring or an increase in total debt reported.
Why it matters: Fixing debt can make a company more stable. This is important for future work.
Supportive ifManagement says they will cut borrowed debt a lot by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo progress reported on debt restructuring by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Steady gross profit growth shows good product management and pricing.
Supportive ifGross profit increases year over year for two consecutive quarters.
Worry ifGross profit declines year over year for two consecutive quarters.
Why it matters: A positive change in sector growth could help American Vanguard perform better.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for 1.2 years.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Changes in the board can impact strategic direction. New members may bring fresh perspectives.
Watch forNew directors are appointed to the board within the next few months.
Also watch forNo new directors are added, so the board stays the same.
Why it matters: Restructuring debt is key for improving financial health. It affects cash flow and growth.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about a successful plan to change debt with creditors.
Worry ifNo progress reported on debt restructuring or an increase in debt levels.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations shows the business is doing well and is healthy.
Supportive ifCash from operations goes up each quarter, showing good trends.
Worry ifCash from operations goes down or stays the same for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Higher gross profit margins show better pricing power and cost control.
Supportive ifGross profit margins improve by more than 2% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifGross profit margins decrease or stay the same for two consecutive quarters.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$263 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $660 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,454 loss on $10,000 · 64.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.