Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AVALYN PHARMA INC (AVLN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$26.67-2.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AVLN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain strong cash position to fund operations into 2029 | The company maintains a strong cash position of $413.5 million, supporting operations through 2029. | Intact | Cash and equivalents fall below $400 million | Cash and cash equivalents: $264.197M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain at least $400 million in cash and equivalents. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Date unavailable264,197,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AVLN is a clinical-development company whose multi-year view depends on advancing its inhaled therapies. Management’s stated trial priorities are on track, but the thesis state is insufficient because recent financial history is too limited to assess. Overall confidence is low.
The evidence does not provide a valuation level or specific market expectations, so whether AVLN is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Priced-in fragility is low, with no fragility gates triggered, but that does not establish that expectations are modest.
Near term, management has reported progress in AP01 enrollment and AP02 enrollment, while AP03 is planned to begin by the end of 2026. Cash of $413.5 million at Q2 2026 supports a projected runway into 2029, though the cash-priority status is mixed. Near-term earnings risk is elevated, with a stated 58% miss probability, despite a reported August earnings beat.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether AP01, AP02, and AP03 continue to advance and whether the available cash funds operations and clinical programs as planned. Near term, weaker jobs data could increase pressure on cyclical healthcare names, while results and guidance from VRTX, REGN, and MRNA may signal whether the sector tailwind persists or fades.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AVLN has a defined clinical-development path and a projected cash runway into 2029, but limited financial history and elevated near-term risk keep the long-term thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company’s current cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, which includes net proceeds of approximately $316.6 million from its initial public offering in May 2026, are projected to be sufficient to fund operations into 2029.” “Financial Results for Second Quarter 2026 Cash Position: Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $413.5 million as of June 30, 2026.”
Advancing clinical trials for inhaled therapies AP01, AP02, and AP03 | Avalyn Pharma is advancing clinical trials for inhaled therapies AP01, AP02, and AP03. | Intact | Enrollment for AP02 Phase 2 does not reach 160 patients by end of 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Completing global enrollment in MIST marks a significant milestone for Avalyn, and the degree of over-enrollment in this study is a testament to the high level of interest from investigators and patients,” said Lyn Baranowski, Chief Executive Officer of Avalyn Pharma.” “The study overenrolled beyond its target enrollment of 375, with a total of 398 patients randomized into three treatment cohorts.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Expand facilities via sublease amendment with CRISPR Therapeutics | A supporting condition in AVALYN PHARMA INC's published investment case. The stated target is Add 8,774 rentable square feet. | Intact | Facility expansion does not occur as planned | 8,774 sq ft secured vs 8,774 sq ft target 8-K filing confirms entry into a Material Definitive Agreement for the 8,774 sq ft sublease amendment with CRISPR Therapeutics. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.42 → $-2.96 · observed estimates
FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.42 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.94 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.96 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.