AVALYN PHARMA INC (AVLN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$26.67-2.91%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVLN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
AVLN — President transition
Dated 2026-09-16
Director — Robert Meyer, M.D.: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to the board, which is a routine governance event and not a departure of a senior executive.
Why it matters: MIST is the largest stated test of AP01 in progressive lung scarring. Its results will show whether the drug helps preserve lung function.
Watch forTopline results meet the study's main lung-function goal. The safety profile supports more study.
Also watch forTopline results miss the main lung-function goal, or show safety issues that limit further study.
Why it matters: The poster tests whether inhaled AP01 reaches lung tissue. That supports the drug-delivery idea, but does not prove patient benefit.
Supportive ifThe ERS poster reports modeled AP01 distribution across target lung tissue in both healthy and IPF lungs.
Worry ifThe poster is not presented, or its model does not show AP01 reaching target lung tissue in IPF lungs.
Why it matters: Starting the study on time would show that Avalyn is advancing its third lung-treatment program.
Supportive ifThe company announces that the AP03 Phase 1 study has started by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifThe company reports that AP03 Phase 1 has not started by December 31, 2026, or delays its start.
Why it matters: AURA tests inhaled nintedanib in IPF. Reaching its target would show progress toward the planned trial readout.
Supportive ifAvalyn says AURA has enrolled 160 patients, its trial target.
Worry ifAvalyn reports that AURA enrollment is behind plan or that the trial's 160-patient target has changed.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$258 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $680 loss on $10,000 · 6.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,056 loss on $10,000 · 40.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Avalyn has no approved product described in these inputs. Cash supports its trials, and a shorter runway could pressure plans.
Watch forA later report still projects enough cash to fund operations into 2029. It does not name a need for earlier financing.
Also watch forA later report moves the cash runway before 2029 or says new financing is needed sooner.