AVALYN PHARMA INC (AVLN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.39+5.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVLN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AVLN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-06-03
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto), is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Avalyn's cash is important. It helps pay for trials and daily operations.
Watch forAvalyn has over $400 million in cash. This shows it has strong funding for its work.
Also watch forAvalyn's cash falls below $400 million. This raises worries about its funding.
Why it matters: Topline data will show if AP01 works for pulmonary fibrosis. Good results could help Avalyn's image and stock.
Supportive ifTopline data from the AP01 trial shows big gains in lung function measured by FVC.
Worry ifTopline data shows no big gains in lung function. Safety concerns may also arise.
Why it matters: Progress in the AURA trial shows Avalyn can move forward with its inhaled therapies.
Supportive ifAvalyn says enrollment in the AURA trial is done or ahead of schedule.
Worry ifEnrollment in the AURA trial is significantly delayed or falls short of the target of 160 patients.
Why it matters: Avalyn's cash is key for funding its trials and operations until 2029.
Supportive ifAvalyn reports that cash and equivalents are more than $400 million after the IPO.
Worry ifAvalyn's cash drops below $400 million due to unexpected costs.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$258 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $718 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,211 loss on $10,000 · 22.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finalizing this sublease is important for Avalyn's growth and plans to expand.
Supportive ifA press release confirms the sublease amendment with CRISPR Therapeutics is complete.
Worry ifThere is no news or delays about the sublease amendment with CRISPR Therapeutics.
Why it matters: Completion of AP02 enrollment is key for Avalyn's growth. It shows progress in their pipeline for IPF treatment.
Supportive ifEnrollment of 160 patients in the AP02 trial is completed on schedule.
Worry ifEnrollment falls short of the target or is delayed significantly.
Why it matters: Completing enrollment in AURA is crucial for Avalyn's AP02 program. It shows progress in treating IPF.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the AURA trial reaches 160 patients as planned.
Worry ifEnrollment in the AURA trial falls short of 160 patients.
Why it matters: Starting the AP03 study is important for Avalyn's strategy in lung therapies. It could enhance their product offerings.
Supportive ifAvalyn says the AP03 Phase 1 study has started.
Worry ifAvalyn delays the start of the AP03 Phase 1 study beyond 2026.
Why it matters: Topline data will show how well AP01 works for patients with pulmonary fibrosis. This is key for Avalyn's future.
Supportive ifData from the MIST trial shows better lung function for patients.
Worry ifTopline data from the MIST trial shows no significant improvement in lung function.