Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$206.68-0.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AXSM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 69.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 87.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AXSM — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-10
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto), shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made by the Company under the Exchange Act or Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Ending the SUNOSI patent case may help keep market control and steady income.
Supportive ifManagement says all SUNOSI patent cases are resolved. There are no more issues.
Worry ifNew cases or issues come up about SUNOSI patents.
Why it matters: A smaller operating loss means better cost control. It also shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating loss in Q2 2026 decreases from $63.4 million in Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating loss in Q2 2026 increases or stays the same compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating income means better cost management. This is key for the company's future.
Supportive ifOperating income is reported at -$50M or better.
Worry ifOperating income remains worse than -$63.36M.
Why it matters: Stable growth in SYMBRAVO sales shows market acceptance. This can boost overall revenue.
Supportive ifSYMBRAVO sales grow more than 30% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSYMBRAVO sales growth falls below 20% year over year in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $350 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,220 loss on $10,000 · 22.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Axsome. A drop below 20% raises concerns about momentum.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Good results from the ENGAGE trial may prove solriamfetol works for binge eating disorder.
Supportive ifENGAGE trial results show a clear improvement in binge eating disorder symptoms.
Worry ifENGAGE trial results do not show a clear improvement.
Why it matters: A bigger sales team could help SYMBRAVO reach more customers and earn more.
Supportive ifManagement says they have added 150 people to the SYMBRAVO sales team.
Worry ifSales force expansion for SYMBRAVO is delayed or does not occur as planned.
Why it matters: Growing revenue shows that people like AUVELITY and other products.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net product revenue growth exceeds 50% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net product revenue growth falls below 40% year-over-year.
Why it matters: AUVELITY sales are growing fast. This shows strong demand and helps boost revenue.
Supportive ifAUVELITY sales grow over 50% compared to last year in the next quarter.
Worry ifAUVELITY sales growth falls below 40% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Starting this trial is important. It helps Axsome's pipeline and smoking cessation efforts.
Supportive ifAXS-05 Phase 2/3 trial is initiated in the third quarter of 2026.
Worry ifTrial initiation is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The FDA's decision on AXS-12 is important. It can help Axsome's narcolepsy treatments.
Supportive ifThe FDA approves AXS-12 for cataplexy in narcolepsy by the PDUFA date.
Worry ifFDA rejects the NDA for AXS-12 or delays the decision beyond May 1, 2027.
Why it matters: This trial will show how well solriamfetol works for binge eating disorder.
Watch forTopline results from the ENGAGE Phase 3 trial of solriamfetol are announced in Q4 2026.
Also watch forTopline results are not released by the end of Q4 2026.