Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$129.80-5.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AXSM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 57.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 102.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 116 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AXSM — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-10
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto), shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made by the Company under the Exchange Act or Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: AUVELITY drove most recent sales growth. Q3 sales can show whether the new use adds to demand.
Watch forQ3 AUVELITY sales rise from last year. New-to-brand starts among patients 65 and older keep growing from launch.
Also watch forQ3 AUVELITY sales fall from last year, or new-to-brand starts among patients 65 and older fall from launch.
Why it matters: More sales staff and wider reach could lift demand. The latest reported sales were small, so prescription growth matters.
Watch forSYMBRAVO prescriptions rise from the 23,500 reported in Q2 2026.
Also watch forSYMBRAVO prescriptions fall quarter over quarter from the Q2 2026 level of 23,500.
Why it matters: The trial tests solriamfetol in binge eating disorder. A clear result can shape the next steps for this drug.
Watch forAxsome reports that the ENGAGE trial met its primary endpoint in the planned Q4 2026 results.
Also watch forAxsome reports that ENGAGE missed its primary endpoint, or delays the results beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: The company reports losses and high sales costs. Its cash level tests management’s claim that current funds can reach cash flow positivity.
Worry ifQuarter-end cash falls below $305 million, the Q1 2026 level, while Axsome still reports a net loss.
Less concerning ifQuarter-end cash stays at or above $320 million, near the Q2 level, and the net loss narrows.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$130 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $416 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,913 loss on $10,000 · 49.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The planned trial is a step toward testing AXS-05 for smoking cessation. A delay would push back that pipeline program.
Watch forAxsome confirms that the pivotal Phase 2/3 smoking cessation trial began in Q3 2026.
Also watch forAxsome reports that the trial has not begun by the end of Q3 2026, or that its start is delayed.