Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$129.80-5.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.51 → 3.54 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AXSM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income improves toward -$63.36 million by 2026-Q1 | It improved operating income from -$78M to -$63M recently. | Intact | Operating income remains worse than -$63.36 million in 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $-11.068M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=-63.36 USD millions. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 2, 2026-11,068,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a commercial-growth and pipeline-development story, not yet a proven profitable compounder. The thesis is on watch: the recent signal improved to mildly favorable, but financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
The evidence tags valuation as justified, with a premium to peers and an expectations gap that leans negative. That suggests the market recognizes growth potential, while expectations may still be demanding relative to recent execution. Confidence in this read is medium.
Near term, product revenue growth is strong: total net product revenue rose between the first and second quarters of 2026, and AUVELITY and SYMBRAVO both posted year-over-year growth. Management has also advanced AXS-12 and solriamfetol development, while recent results include an earnings miss followed by an in-line report. The business remains loss-making, and its record of recent misses leaves execution risk elevated.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued product growth and execution against guidance; a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback. Over the multi-year view, pipeline progress matters, including the AXS-12 regulatory timeline and solriamfetol trials. A weakening jobs trend could weigh on sector sentiment, while strong results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support it.
Over a one-to-three-year horizon, AXSM has meaningful commercial growth and pipeline progress, but losses and weak recent performance make execution the central question. The long-term thesis has improved modestly, yet remains on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Revenue reaches at least $638.5 million in 2026 |
| A primary condition in Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=638.5 USD millions. |
| Broken |
| Revenue falls below $638.5 million in 2026 |
Revenue: $259.691M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=638.5 USD millions. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 2026259,691,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Patent litigation on SUNOSI is fully resolved | The company settled SUNOSI patent lawsuits, reducing legal risks. | Intact | New patent litigation or unresolved legal issues arise on SUNOSI | Litigation resolved vs target by mid-2026 8-K filed June 3, 2026 announces settlement resolving all SUNOSI patent litigation. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.25 → $3.54 · observed estimates
$1.58B → $1.46B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.25 | $1,578,441,583 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.25 | $1,578,441,583 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.25 | $1,578,441,583 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.85 | $1,596,367,450 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.85 | $1,596,367,450 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.85 | $1,596,367,450 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.85 | $1,596,367,450 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.85 | $1,596,367,450 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.85 | $1,596,367,450 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.80 | $1,596,367,450 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.80 | $1,596,367,450 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.44 | $1,596,236,583 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.80 | $1,596,367,450 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.80 | $1,596,367,450 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.44 | $1,596,236,583 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.80 | $1,596,367,450 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.80 | $1,596,367,450 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.80 | $1,596,367,450 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.80 | $1,596,367,450 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.80 | $1,596,367,450 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.59 | $1,571,590,300 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.44 | $1,596,236,583 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.44 | $1,596,236,583 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.44 | $1,596,236,583 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.44 | $1,596,236,583 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.44 | $1,596,236,583 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.44 | $1,596,236,583 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.44 | $1,596,236,583 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.72 | $1,562,140,971 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.72 | $1,562,140,971 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.72 | $1,562,140,971 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.72 | $1,562,140,971 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.66 | $1,562,101,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.66 | $1,562,351,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.66 | $1,562,351,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.66 | $1,562,351,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.66 | $1,562,351,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.66 | $1,562,351,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.66 | $1,562,351,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.66 | $1,562,351,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.66 | $1,562,351,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.66 | $1,562,351,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.66 | $1,562,351,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.66 | $1,562,351,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.66 | $1,562,351,421 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.48 | $1,551,715,639 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.48 | $1,542,491,830 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.49 | $1,538,714,019 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.49 | $1,538,714,019 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.49 | $1,538,714,019 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.49 | $1,538,714,019 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.49 | $1,538,714,019 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.49 | $1,538,714,019 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.51 | $1,538,475,942 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.51 | $1,538,475,942 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.51 | $1,538,475,942 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.51 | $1,538,475,942 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.51 | $1,538,475,942 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.51 | $1,538,475,923 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.51 | $1,538,475,942 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.48 | $1,536,516,419 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.48 | $1,536,516,419 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.48 | $1,536,516,419 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.48 | $1,536,516,419 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.33 | $1,527,430,995 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.27 | $1,522,961,428 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.26 | $1,522,032,857 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.18 | $1,519,753,447 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.18 | $1,519,753,447 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.96 | $1,505,543,924 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.96 | $1,505,543,924 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.96 | $1,505,543,924 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.96 | $1,505,543,924 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.96 | $1,505,543,924 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.96 | $1,505,543,924 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.95 | $1,505,016,590 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.95 | $1,505,016,590 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.95 | $1,505,016,590 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.95 | $1,505,016,590 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.90 | $1,501,354,685 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.90 | $1,501,354,685 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.89 | $1,500,378,924 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.89 | $1,500,378,924 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.89 | $1,500,378,924 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.89 | $1,500,378,924 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.58 | $1,459,254,632 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.54 | $1,463,168,918 | 14 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.